Putin’s deal with Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin may have “collapsed”.
That according to a report from ISW, Institute for the Study of War.
“It indicates that Putin has failed to resolve the questions raised by Prigozhin and Wagner after the June 24 uprising,” the report said.
On Midsummer Day, Prigozhin and his mercenaries marched on Moscow as part of an armed uprising against the Russian military leadership.
But after just one day, the Wagner group gave up. According to reports, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko brokered a peace agreement that required Wagner to move his forces to Belarus.
Now the ISW think tank believes that Russian “insider” reports show that the Wagner group has begun to withdraw from Belarus and is on its way back to Russia.
“Speculation about the withdrawal of the Wagner Group suggests that aspects of the deal between Putin and Prigozhin after Wagner’s June 24 armed uprising have collapsed,” the ISW report said.
Putin’s “failure”
The report states that this indicates that Putin has failed to resolve the issues and meet the demands made by Prigozhin after the uprising.
In addition, ISW believes that Putin “is likely to remain concerned about the threat that Prigozhin poses to his long-term goals” as he “continues to focus on separating Prigozhin from Wagner.”
Prigozhin’s alleged exile also appears to be over as he appeared at a summit between Russia and several African leaders in St. Petersburg in late July.
Tensions between Belarus and Poland
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak says in a radio interview that the country plans to station 10,000 soldiers at the border with Belarus, TT reports.
The official reason is that a record number of migrants are trying to cross the border, something that has long been a problem between the countries.
But most recently, just over a week ago, Belarus violated Polish airspace, and Poland’s Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski has said that there is a concrete threat from Belarus. He claims that soldiers from the Russian Wagner group have tried to enter Polish territory.
– This may well be seen as another provocation in the direction of trying to control Polish preparedness, said Lt. Col. Johan Huovinen to TV4 Nyheterna then.