Small chance of breakthrough in Ukrainian offensive

Ukraine’s counter-offensive has been going on for two months and no major breakthroughs have yet occurred.

– The prospects for Ukraine to achieve a major breakthrough seem rather small now, says Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive that began in June is moving more slowly than some would like, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted on Tuesday.

– The counteroffensive is complex. It may be developing more slowly than some may wish, Zelenskyy said in an interview on Latin American television.

Concerns about lack of success are now heard from several quarters. Anonymous Western and American intelligence sources CNN spoke to confirm the picture of a counter-offensive that is not quite living up to expectations.

– Even if they (Ukraine) continue to struggle in the coming weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly make a breakthrough? The conditions are so difficult, says a high-ranking Western diplomat to CNN.

Another anonymous source says the US remains hopeful that Ukraine will make progress soon.

– We are aware that this is going more difficult and slower than anyone would like but we still believe there is time for them to make progress, the official told CNN.

Minefields and trenches

The challenges for the Ukrainian forces are about breaking through the Russian defense lines in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. Russia has had eight months to prepare defenses by deploying tens of thousands of mines and digging trenches. Ukraine has suffered heavy casualties, prompting commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel and teacher of military strategy at the Norwegian Defense Academy, agrees that Ukraine’s prospects for a major breakthrough are slim at the moment. It is extremely difficult to break through the defensive line, especially when you lack air supremacy.

– There are reports that Ukrainian forces have reached the Russian defense lines. That, combined with the fact that Ukraine has gained artillery superiority in some places, could make it possible to break through the first lines of defense. But whether it means a major breakthrough remains to be seen. Are there an equal number of mines between the defense lines? asks Paasikivi.

– All in all, the prospects of achieving a major breakthrough look rather small now.

A surprise attack

So what does it take for Ukraine to make a breakthrough? According to Paasikivi, the hope is to be able to clear a path through the minefield and keep the Russians at bay and gradually replenish with more units.

– You create a situation where Russian units are forced to parry and then give way, he says.

Another way to achieve success in the counteroffensive is to do something surprising, attack where the Russians do not expect.

– For example, if you cross the river Dnieper and the Russians have moved units to other places, says Paasikivi.

Unrealistic expectations

Paasikivi believes that the expectations for Ukraine were possibly unrealistic, which in part has to do with the way the media reported on the war.

– The media logic has been problematic because it has created an image that there are only two options, one is that it goes very fast, the other is that it will be a protracted trench war for four more years, says Paasikivi and adds:

– The initial expectations have now changed to some kind of resignation, which is also not justified, he concludes.