Facts: The latest housing figures
The next monthly statistics from Svensk Mäklarstatistik will be published on 10 August and will then show the development in July.
The month before that, in June, the prices of condominiums were flat in the country compared to the month before. For villas, however, a price increase of 1 percent was noted.
On an annual basis, the price drop for condominiums is now 5 percent, while it is 12 percent for villas.
Regarding holiday homes, a significantly smaller market, there are only statistics for 12 months. There, prices have fallen by 7 percent.
Source: Swedish Broker Statistics.
Summertime means low season on the housing market, but as the holidays end, housing ads begin to be posted again.
Erik Holmberg, analyst at the housing website Hemnet, sees the coming weekends as a kick-off for the autumn season.
“It usually kicks off in earnest during the second or third weekend in August, but it’s a little different for different housing types,” he says.
— There is always a clear reduction during the summer when it comes to apartments, and the villa market also holds up a little more during the summer.
No “tsunamis”
The big question is how house prices develop.
When Svensk Mäklarstatistik reported its latest sales figures at the beginning of July, condominium prices had fallen five percent over a twelve-month period. The fall in the housing market was twelve percent.
The statistics are grim reading for anyone thinking of selling. But at the same time, the situation is less bad than many predicted.
In line with the Riksbank’s interest rate increases, several actors have had forecasts of housing falls of up to 20 percent, but in recent months there has been some price stabilization. Hans Flink, business development manager at Svensk Mäklarstatistik, assesses that this trend will continue.
“I rather believe in a sideways shift in prices, small waves of price changes rather than tsunamis,” he says.
The autumn interest rate announcement from the Riksbank is decisive for the development of housing prices. Stock Photo.Another two raises?
The fact that prices have not fallen more than they did, Hans Flink believes, is connected to the fact that it is the need for housing that drives development.
— Swedes are prepared to spend an increasingly large part of their disposable income on housing. We have a needs-driven housing market based on whether we get married, divorce or are crowded, he says.
– Unlike in many other countries, there are also very few here who buy villas or condominiums to rent out. In other countries you can become something of a landlord, that market does not exist in Sweden regardless of interest rates or inflation trends.
At the same time, Flink states that what is negative for the market is all forms of uncertainty – and right now the situation is uncertain to say the least. The Riksbank’s next interest rate announcement will not come until September 21. There are many indications that at least one, probably two, interest rate increases await before the turn of the year from the current level of 3.75 percent.
Awaiting the situation
— The picture is that many are waiting based on the troubled economic situation. You don’t want a tough sale in a situation where the economy is worried, says Erik Holmberg.
— I would not believe in any sharp price drops, but rather a sideways development.
Decisive now are the upcoming interest rate announcements. If the Riksbank changes its interest rate forecast, this is also expected to have a major impact, he points out:
— If the interest rate path is adjusted upwards, it is obviously negative for housing prices and if the opposite happens – then people will be more daring. Then we may well have seen the bottom of the prices.