(Finance) – Russia is not only one of the world’s leading producers of oil and gas, but also a major raw material supplier to industry and technology companies. In particular, the country led by Vladimir Putin is a major exporter of palladium and other metals of the del platinum Besides nickel, aluminum, steel and copper. Ukraine, on the other hand, is an important producer of titanium and iron ore, and hosts one of Europe’s largest reserves of uranium, titanium, manganese, mercury and coal. It is therefore easy to understand why the conflict that broke out with the Russian invasion produced a rally in commodity prices on global markets. Analysts are now wondering what developments may be in the coming weeks and months.
L’S&P GSCI index, a broad barometer for the price of global commodities, jumped 33% year to date (with the largest increases since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine) and 58% over the past year. “Events in Russia and Ukraine are triggering exceptional movements in commodity prices, which could have structural implications for long-term supply, but we also believe they exist. credible threats of demand destruction with the collapse in commodity prices, “said Dominic O’Kane, an analyst at JPMorgan.
“THE main risks go both waysand if the current crisis and the war were to find a sudden solution, crude oil could fall by 10% to 15%, EU gas up to 50%, Parisian wheat up to 25% while gold could see a more subdued downward reaction from 2% to 4%, “commented Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy for BG SAXO. Somewhat different speech for oil.” Brent crude travels at prices close to or above $ 100 a barrel (not since 2012) and, although the price now probably includes a Russian offer risk premium close to $ 10, the outlook remains favorable as the global demand shows no signs of easing in the long term, “he added.
“Although sanctions have not yet been imposed on Russian metal exports, both mining operations in Russia and the transportation of metals to export markets will become difficult with shipping companies, insurance companies and ports that could suspend activities with Russian counterparties – noted Tommy Trask, analyst at Scope Ratings – Some of the largest shipping companies in the world have suspended the shipment of containers to and from the Russia for non-essential items. This will not only affect market prices, but manufacturers who have hitherto relied on raw materials from Russia and Ukraine may have to seek alternative sources of supply at a higher cost “.
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