Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny will be sentenced today in the trial that started in June, in which he is accused, among other things, of founding an extremist organization. The verdict is to be announced after 4 pm Finnish time.
Navalny is also accused of inciting extremist activities, financing extremist activities, reviving Nazism and encouraging minors to engage in life-threatening activities.
The verdict could bring Navalny up to 20 more years in prison.
The trial will take place hundreds of kilometers from Moscow at the Melehovo Penitentiary, where Navalny is serving his current sentences. ‘s Russia correspondent Heikki Heiskanen previously estimated that the Russian authorities are trying to prevent the jailed opposition leader from presenting his own views to the public.
Navalny is already serving a total of more than 11 years in prison.
Navalnyi was arrested in 2021 when he returned to Russia from Germany, where he had been taken for treatment after the August 2020 poisoning attempt.
The one who investigated Navalny’s poisoning together with Bellingcat CNN reported in December 2020 that the Russian security service FSB was behind the failed assassination attempt.
Navalnyi was first sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for violating the terms of a previous parole sentence, but the following year a 9-year fraud sentence was added.
The opposition has already been destroyed
A researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Arkady Moshes according to the ongoing trials against Navalny and the increasingly harsh sentences are all about Kremlin revenge.
– Navalny was a potential threat to Vladimir Putin. He continued his persistent fight against the regime for a long time, and in the case of Navalny, the Kremlin wants to show that the formation of structures that oppose the regime leads to severe consequences.
According to Moshes, it was the formation of anti-regime structures and the organization of demonstrations that made Navalny the biggest enemy of the Putin regime in Russia.
– After the war that broke out in Ukraine, freedom of speech in Russia has been narrowed even further. Today, a single tweet can lead to ten years in prison.
According to Moshes, it has been established in the Kremlin that Navalny still has influence, and because of this he must be silenced.
Moshes does not believe that today’s verdict will have an impact on the political situation in Russia. According to him, the country’s opposition has already been destroyed.
– People have either fled the country, or learned to live in the current conditions. I don’t think that many people will show solidarity with Navalny.
– 20-25 percent of Russians still oppose the administration’s actions and the war in Ukraine, but there are no structures capable of challenging Putin’s administration.
“All parties opposed to Putin will be destroyed in days”
According to Moshes, also a popular war blogger and former Russian officer by Igor Girkin the recent arrest shows that the emergence of a new counterforce like Navalny is no longer possible in Russia.
– Navalnyi rose to popularity at a time when the political atmosphere in Russia was very different. Now all parties opposing Putin will be destroyed in days.
According to Moshes, Navallyi first became known in Russia as an opponent of corruption and the ruling United Russia party. Navalnyi managed to rise above other opposition figures with his investigative journalism on corruption.
– He personally left first, the president Dmitri Medvedev’s, and later after Putin. For this he is now being punished.
Navalny tried for a long time to find his own place in Russian politics. Moshes acknowledges that not all of Navalny’s political positions have always been very progressive. However, he does not want to criticize a person who might die in prison.
Navalny’s comments on Ukraine have changed significantly over the years. Back in 2014, he said that he supported the occupation of Crimea and swore that he would never return the peninsula to Ukraine if he were the president of Russia.
A staunch critic of Putin
The 47-year-old Navalny is the most famous opponent of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Educated as a lawyer, Navalnyi has been active in Russia as an activist and counterforce to the Kremlin since 2008.
Navalny has continued to criticize the Kremlin from prison through his representatives.
In February, he said that Russia would inevitably suffer defeat in Ukraine and demanded that Russia should return the territories it occupied to Ukraine. At the same time, he stated that after the fighting is over, Russia must compensate the losses suffered by Ukraine.
At the beginning of the trial, which began in June, Navalnyi said he was starting a new campaign aimed at persuading Russians to oppose a war of aggression in Ukraine.
Moshes does not know why the Kremlin has allowed Navalny to continue making statements. Instead, he says that he is quite sure that the situation will change after today.
– Different rules apply to those convicted of different crimes in Russia, and Navalny’s contact with his lawyers has not been restricted as much as many might have expected. Now he will likely be given much harsher terms and will be transferred to a new penitentiary where he will have even fewer rights.
Moshes thinks it is very likely that Navalny will not be heard from for a long time after tomorrow. At the same time, according to him, it can be assumed that Navalny’s health will deteriorate further.
According to Moshes, there is a small chance that Navalnyi would one day be released from prison.
– At some point, the power in Russia will change, and Navalnyi may be one of the pawns in the negotiations between the West and Russia. However, this depends on who will lead Russia after Putin.