Ukraine is likely behind the recent drone attacks on Russian soil. But the attacks do not affect the war at the front – but rather have a political signal value, according to Johan Huovinen at the Norwegian Defense University.
It is “inevitable” that the war will also reach Russia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi. He made the statement after Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin claimed on Sunday that drones had been shot down in the Russian capital.
The wreckage is said to have caused damage to the “Moscow City” skyscraper, where several Russian ministries have their offices.
During the night of Tuesday, the same office complex was again damaged in another drone attack, according to the mayor.
A series of drone attacks have been directed at Moscow in recent months. Russia blames all attacks on Ukraine, which has denied involvement.
A message
However, it is likely that Ukraine is behind the recent attacks, believes Johan Houvinen, lieutenant colonel and teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy. But it could also be a Russian group supporting the Ukrainian cause or a Ukrainian group operating in Russia.
– What I still think is most likely is that they are fired from Ukraine.
The attacks do not affect the war on the front line in eastern Ukraine, according to Huovinen. It is not the size of the attacks that is important, but that they happen right there – in the Russian capital. Ukraine wants to send a message to Russia and remind the population that there is a war going on, says Huovinen.
– It is about changing the will and motivation to wage war in Ukraine in the long term, to undermine the Russian people’s will for war and indirectly the political will to wage war, he says.
– Russia is a very large country and not everyone walks around thinking about the war in Ukraine. Then they want to create some kind of feeling of insecurity for the Kremlin as well.
Tactic to deny
The suspected type of drone used by Ukraine, the Ukrainian-made UJ-22, has a technical range of 800 kilometers. This means that Moscow can be reached from Ukrainian territory. The drone can only be controlled up to 100 kilometers but can be set to specific targets using GPS.
– The problem is that it is possible to interfere with GPSs and that the precision is not one hundred percent, unlike if you had an operator-controlled drone, says Houvinen.
There may be several reasons why Ukraine does not take responsibility for the attacks, according to Houvinen.
Either it could be because they are fired from inside Russia – or because it is feared that the attacks could lead to civilian deaths in Moscow. Russia describes the attacks as Ukrainian “terrorist attacks”.
– It’s interesting in itself, if Ukraine attacks Moscow it’s terrorism, but when you shoot cruise robots at Kiev or Odessa yourself, then it’s part of the “special operation”, says Houvinen about the Russian narrative.
FACTS Alleged drone attacks on Moscow
May 3: Russia claims that Ukraine tried to carry out a drone attack on the Kremlin in Moscow. According to Russia, the intention is to kill President Vladimir Putin.
May 30: A drone attack causes damage to several buildings in Moscow. Russia accuses Ukraine of being behind what it calls a “terrorist attack” against the capital.
June 21: Two drones are shot down near a military facility outside Moscow, the capital region’s governor says. The drones were allegedly heading for military warehouses southwest of Moscow, according to the governor.
July 4: Five drones are shot down in the Moscow region, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry.
July 24: Two buildings in Moscow are hit by drones, according to Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. According to the state-controlled Tass news agency, the remains of a drone have been found on a street near Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
July 30: Several drones are shot down by Russian defense, according to the Ministry of Defense. The wreckage is said to have caused damage to the “Moscow City” skyscraper in western Moscow – where several Russian ministries are said to have their premises.
August 1: Two drones are shot down by Russian defense, according to the Ministry of Defense. Another drone damaged the same office complex as in Sunday’s attack, according to the mayor.
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