During the week there have been reports that Ukraine is making some progress on the front. On Thursday, the country said it had retaken a village in the Donetsk region, and on Saturday the intelligence service claimed that forces will soon begin a military operation in Crimea. However, Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi does not believe that the country has the opportunity to carry out any major operations on the peninsula at the moment.
– On the other hand, there are special forces operations and sabotage in principle over the entire surface of Ukraine, he says.
Although we know very little about how the Ukrainian counter-offensive is actually going, there are indications that Ukraine has likely begun what could be seen as the major build-up of forces. Joakim Paasikivi says that the forces have made progress in several directions.
– In the southern part of Ukraine, north of Tokmak, progress has been made and also south of Velyka Novosilka. Then you also go around Bachmut. where there are indications of Ukrainian success. Russia, for its part, is pressing up in the northern Donbass, but they have not managed to get through there. There are fierce battles along the entire front, he says.
Joakim Paasikivi believes that the Russians are trying to push to the north because they want to split the Ukrainian focus and that Ukraine will thus be forced to take reserves from the south.
Ukraine may be ready for ‘the real battles’
All in all, it seems that Ukraine has now managed to get through the first large minefields, something that Paasikivi believes indicates that the preparation phase has been completed before “the real battles begin”.
– It sounds strange because there has been very fierce fighting for two months, but now there may be a prerequisite for Ukraine to deploy more of the units that it had in reserve, he says.
– That is also what the Russian military blogs say. From the Russian official side, of course, they say as usual – that Ukriana is failing, but we have not yet seen any signs of that.
Psychological pressure important for Ukraine
Although the lieutenant colonel does not believe that Ukraine has the opportunity to carry out any major military operations on the Crimean Peninsula at the moment, he emphasizes that it is still important for Ukraine to “maintain psychological pressure against Russia”.
– It is something that the Russians have to deal with, he says.