Since the Wagner group’s coup attempt in Russia on June 24, the question of whether it damaged Vladimir Putin’s rule has been up for debate.
Intelligence analysts have hinted that Putin’s rule has taken a lot of damage, while some say it has had little impact and most seem to think it is too early to tell, according to John E. McLaughlin, former director, CIA.
But both McLaughlin and current CIA director Bill Burns see the coup attempt as a sign of Vladimir Putin’s empire crumbling, reports The Cipher Breif.
– It is the most direct attack against the Russian state and Vladimir Putin’s 23-year rule, says Bill Burns.
Paradigm shift
Burns describes what is happening in Russia right now as a “once in a generation opportunity” for a paradigm shift. Above all, when Putin’s “carefully cultivated” tacit agreement with both Russia’s general population and its powerful elite is pushed into disrepair.
– You stay out of politics. That’s my thing. What I will offer in return is a rising standard of living, and for the most part I will not intrude on your privacy, says Bill Burns.
This is how the director describes the tacit agreement that Putin used to cling to power. An agreement that, however, looks somewhat different for the Russian power elite.
– You align yourself with my political ranks. What I (Putin) will ensure in return is protection from external threats, protection from each other – and getting a seat at the table, that everyone gets to share in the spoils, he says.
“Has the emperor no clothes?”
An agreement that is now described as increasingly fragile, as it is primarily based on Putin’s total control over the country. A control which, with the coup attempt, proved to be weaker than feared.
– For many Russians watching, the question was “doesn’t the emperor have any clothes?”, or at least “why does it take him so long to get dressed?”, says Bill Burns.
John E. McLaughlin believes that Prigozhin’s coup attempt may have created a “virus of truth” that may spread in Russian society.
“Prigozhy’s message was as important as his actions; he targeted corrupt, ambitious politicians and generals who are sending young Russians to die in a war on the false premise that Ukraine and NATO threatened Russia,” he writes.
According to McLaughlin, a large part of the Russian population is “numbed” by the Russian propaganda machine, and even though they know they are being fed false information, they choose to avoid the inconvenient truth.
Someone like Prigozhin’s many speeches and the Wagner Group’s attempted coup may change that.
“In authoritarian societies, an influential person who loudly expresses what many suspect or believe but are afraid to say aloud – for example, that the war is pointless and has been badly managed – indirectly gives permission for others to participate in more open discussions than the regime normally allows,” writes John E. McLaughlin.
Putin’s revenge on Prigozhin
The Wagner Group is still important to Vladimir Putin. Its troops make up a large part of the Russian state’s presence on the African continent. Which in the long run means that Putin is still in need of his former chef, Prigozhin, according to Burns.
– Putin is a person who thinks that revenge is a dish that is best served cold, he says and concludes:
– In my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback – so I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retaliation.