After Russia withdrew from the grain agreement, they escalate the war even more. Now Russia is warning all ships sailing to Ukraine that they will be seen as potential carriers of military equipment. Something that starts to apply already during the night of Thursday.
– This is done to completely stop the export of grain from Ukraine, it is part of the economic warfare and it has the effect that no one wants to insure ships that are going into Ukrainian ports. So it will be a fairly effective method, says Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
“Aggressive and risk-prone attitude”
During the night of Wednesday, Russia attacked the Odessa region for the second night in a row. In a statement, they call it a revenge attack, after the explosion that damaged the Crimean Bridge. Something Russia accuses Ukraine of being behind.
– It is true that Russia now has an extremely aggressive and risk-prone stance.
Threats against countries that support Ukraine in any way are nothing new. But the threat is greater now, says Joakim Paasikivi.
– What is alarming is that in the Black Sea there is a greater opportunity from the Russian side to actually make a move on the matter.
Paasikivi: Russia keeps its promise
However, he points out that the probability of wanting to go to war with more countries is currently low. But he does not doubt that Russia will keep its promise if ships move towards Ukrainian ports.
– It is not at all impossible. At least that they are predated or otherwise stopped.
– It is not that the Russian total military capability has increased, but that there is now more room for the Russians to be confrontational in the Black Sea.
The UN is now trying to reach some kind of agreement again. But Russia’s warning indicates that may be a long way off.
– It is also a clear line of confrontation against the UN, which is trying to achieve these agreements.
“No positive signal”
Without the grain agreement, many poor countries risk being affected. A total of 45 countries received grain shipments from Ukraine under the initiative. Asia accounted for 46 percent of imports, while 40 percent went to Western Europe, 12 percent went to Africa and one percent went to Eastern Europe, according to the United Nations
It is still too early to say what other effects the latest announcement may have, says Joakim Paasikivi.
– I think we should let it go for a little while and see what the real effect will be before there is reason to be really worried. But it is not a positive signal, he says.