MOSCOW President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recent actions have inevitably caused irritation in Russia.
Erdoğan has expressed at least verbal support for Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and finally seems to be allowing Sweden into NATO.
Symbolically, however, it is the case of the Azov fighters that irritates Russia the most. The President of Ukraine visited Turkey Volodymyr Zelenskyi flew back on Saturday with five commanders of the Azov forces.
For two months, the fighters of the Azov regiment resisted the Russian troops in the bloody battle for the city of Mariupol. They surrendered in May last year.
Russia released the commanders as part of a prisoner swap deal on the condition that they remain in Turkey until the end of the war – with President Erdoğan’s personal assurance.
Chairman of the Defense Committee of the upper house of the Russian Parliament, the Federal Council Viktor Bondarev thundered to the state news agency Tassi that Turkey could turn from a neutral country to an unfriendly one.
– Many-faced Recep Erdoğan has made stupid and impulsive decisions in the past: flirted with ISIS, influenced the downing of Russian planes, delivered airplanes to Ukraine, incited Turkish-speaking nations to create Greater Turkey, the senator listed and accused the Turkish leader of backstabbing.
Coincidentally, Bondarev was in charge of the Russian Air Force in 2015 when a fighter jet from NATO country Turkey shot down a Russian military plane near the Turkish-Syrian border.
It was a dangerous moment in the relations between Russia and Turkey, which were already strained by the countries’ support for different parties in the Syrian civil war.
The Azov commanders were a card in the propaganda war
In Ukraine, the Azov commanders are heroes, while in Russia they represent the core of evil.
Russia has used the far-right background of the Azov regiment in its propaganda to paint the entire Ukrainian armed forces as Nazi troops.
The spectacular homecoming of the Azov commanders captured in Mariupol is therefore an unfortunate setback for Russia in the information war.
A Russian journalist known as a loud-mouthed propagandist Sergei Mardan said that it is national humiliation to Russia.
Mardan criticized Erdoğan and said that Russia helped Erdoğan win the presidential election because he saw the opposition as an intolerable option for Russia.
– Both are worse, Mardan now quoted from Stalin’s old statement.
On the other hand, he admitted that Russia needs Turkey.
– Our parts on the European side are blocked. We have three export corridors, and we are an export-oriented country. Our domestic market is small, Mardan said.
– There is China, there is Turkey and partly there is Iran through the Caspian Sea.
The Russian leadership does not want a break
Russia probably has no great desire to sever relations with Turkey in the middle of a confrontation with the West.
The president of Turkey has said that the president of Russia Vladimir Putin would be coming to visit Turkey in August.
For Putin, the visit would once again be a way to show that the West has not been able to isolate Russia internationally.
Putin’s representative Dmitry Peskov commented today, Tuesday, in a cautious tone on Turkey’s decision to let Sweden into NATO. He reminded that NATO membership obliges Turkey.
– It has never been a secret for us. In that respect, we have not looked at things with rose-colored glasses, Peskov assured.
Peskov said that despite the differences, Russia and Turkey continue to develop their relations.
However, Peskov teased Turkey about EU relations.
– But we also know that nobody wants to see Turkey in Europe. I mean Europeans. In that regard, our Turkish partners should not wear rose-colored glasses either, Peskov said.
Of course, the representative of the Kremlin considered Sweden’s NATO membership to be a negative thing from the point of view of Russia’s security.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia is ready to take the necessary countermeasures in good time.
– We draw our conclusions depending on how quickly and deeply NATO takes over the territories of Finland and Sweden, Lavrov said.
He was certain that Finland and Sweden are already having discussions about placing NATO infrastructure near the Russian border.
Turkey is balancing
When the confrontation that broke out over the downing of a military plane in 2016 subsided, Turkey and Russia unexpectedly began to strengthen their relations.
For the Turkish leadership, Russia has been a lifeline when the Turkish economy went into crisis in 2018 and inflation started to soar.
Turkey has continued to balance its relationship with Russia since Russia launched its major invasion of Ukraine last February.
Turkey has supplied weapons to Ukraine – the most famous example being the Bayraktar drones – but has not committed itself to Western sanctions.
Turkey brokered the Black Sea grain agreement, which has enabled grain exports from Ukrainian ports and smoothed the mood on the international grain market.
This agreement expires on Monday next week, and Russia has threatened to withdraw from its extension.
Last year, Turkey’s trade with Russia grew by 93 percent, write Atlantic Council, a NATO-minded think tank.
In Russia, Turkey is an important supplier of electronics, including microcircuits and semiconductors. From March 2022 to March 2023, Turkey’s electronics exports to Russia increased by approximately 85 percent.
Because of the sanctions, Turkey has become an even more important destination for Russia in the export of natural gas and oil. Therefore, it is not in Russia’s interest to rock the boat.
Tourism as a playing card
Russia would certainly have ways to make life difficult for Turkey. If Russia doesn’t want to sacrifice energy trade, one way would be to attack Turkey’s tourism industry.
This was already seen in connection with the 2015 plane incident, when Russia hit Turkey with travel bans.
In the previous year, Russian tourists had brought income to Turkey worth 6.6 billion dollars, which corresponded to about one percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product.
Turkey is evaluated lost $5.8 billion in revenue. That was about a fifth of the revenue that Turkey as a whole had expected to receive from tourism in 2016.
Finally Erdoğan apologized in June 2016, the downing of the plane and the Kremlin interpreted it as an acceptable apology. That was the beginning of a significant repair of relations.
There have been wrinkles in relationships even later. In April 2021, Russia suspended almost all flights to Turkey until the end of June, i.e. during the busy season.
The official reason was the coronavirus infections from Turkey, but the decision came shortly after Ukrainian President Zelenskyi had met President Erdoğan in Turkey.
So Russia can use tourism as a means of pressure, but it is a different matter whether the Russian leadership would want to close this life hole for its citizens.
Turkish newspaper Hürriyet by around 7 million Russian tourists are expected to visit Turkey this year.
The rulers of Russia have still tried to maintain some kind of image of normal life despite the war of aggression against Ukraine.