At last year’s NATO summit in Madrid, Turkey agreed with Sweden on what must be done for ratification of Sweden’s application. Among other things, the list contained points about tougher measures against the terrorist-classified PKK.
But it is not as important as one might think during this year’s summit, according to SVT’s security reporter John Granlund.
– At the moment, it seems that the process is taking place at a higher level, where the agreement between the countries is a closed chapter that is considered from the Swedish side to have fulfilled all points, he says.
– If the negotiations between, for example, Turkey and the USA break down, it is likely that Erdogan will once again pick up the agreement and use various aspects from it to defend stopping Sweden’s NATO membership.
What is Sweden’s reserve plan?
– The government has been reluctant to talk about any plan B at all. The reason for this has mainly been negotiation tactics. If you go out and talk about alternatives, your cards are weakened before today’s negotiations, says John Granlund.
– In the background, there is certainly a plan B, especially with the Armed Forces, but in that case it is about contingency planning for NATO membership to take time, not that it would not happen, he adds.
What are the consequences of Turkey’s reluctance?
– For Swedish defense it would mean that Sweden “shows its colors” in the clearest way without being able to take advantage of NATO’s Article 5. Nor would it be able to participate in NATO’s defense planning, which means that the Swedish Armed Forces end up in a kind of planning limbo. In the short term, however, it would not pose any security risks, according to the Swedish Armed Forces, says John Granlund.
Hear the answer to more questions about the Swedish NATO process in the video.