At this rate, France will not achieve its objectives in the fight against global warming and is not “ready to face” its effects either, warned, on Wednesday June 28, the High Council for the Climate ( HCC). The year 2022, a new “benchmark” for the climate to come, demonstrates this, underlines this independent authority in its annual report, which includes 200 pages of evaluation, reference of the country’s climate strategy. As a result, France must urgently revise upwards the measures put in place to achieve its objectives, according to the institution.
In 2022, “we were not able to manage, we were overwhelmed”, sums up its president, climatologist Corine Le Quéré, at the head of the HCC since its creation in 2019 by Emmanuel Macron. The year was marked by a temperature record: France was +2.9°C warmer than during the 1900-1930 period. But also by a drastic rainfall deficit of 25% compared to 1991-2020. This year is now a “reference point” for French vulnerabilities. Following water shortages during the summer, 8,000 municipalities requested recognition as “natural disasters” because of the shrinkage-swelling of dry clay soil, which causes cracks in buildings. The cost of the phenomenon for insurance is “estimated at 2.9 billion euros, is at the limit of sustainable according to the Central Reinsurance Fund” notes the HCC.
“Decreases in yield of 10% to 30%” in agriculture, hydroelectric production “20% lower than the 2015-2019 average”, tensions on drinking water, excess heat-related mortality… The HCC reviews all the economic and social impacts of these climatic phenomena. Not to mention the effects of drought on biodiversity: “virtual absence of reproductions” of certain amphibians, “weak or abnormal reproduction” of waterbirds, lists the report. It also exposes the limits of the fight against fires, France having been forced last year to call on foreign reinforcements. Forest fires (72,000 hectares burned in total) and global warming continue to deteriorate the performance of carbon sinks, essential to hope to meet the objective of carbon neutrality in 2050.
Insufficient pace to achieve low carbon targets
“From the years 2022, we will have more and more of them, they will intensify and we must have a really urgent response”, warns Corine Le Quéré. With Europe warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, the government has just begun drafting a strategy for adapting to a climate 4°C warmer by the end of the century than by compared to the 19th century, before the massive emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity.
National emissions targets insufficient in the face of global warming
© / afp.com/Cléa PÉCULIER
In the meantime, France’s strategy to do its part in the fight against carbon emissions and climate change is proving to be very insufficient. With a 2.7% decline in 2022, the decline in national emissions continues, but at “an insufficient rate to achieve the objectives”, repeats the HCC. France, which is committed to reducing them by 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, is therefore far from the mark. Not to mention that this decrease is partly the result of a mild winter, which reduced heating needs.
“The government can no longer discard itself and must finally react with structuring measures”, reacted the NGOs which are suing the State in the “Affair of the Century”. The government for its part notes a faster drop in emissions than among its neighbours. The third National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC), which sets its emission ceilings, must be strengthened to take into account new European objectives (-55%). To achieve this, “the decline must practically double on average until 2030”, recalls Corine Le Quéré. An ambition that seems unattainable in view of the current measures. After the failure of the first, “the second carbon budget is in the process of being exceeded over the period 2019-2022 due to the low absorption by carbon sinks”, warns the HCC. Their storage capacity “is more than twice that expected by SNBC 2”, in particular due to increased tree mortality.
The HCC thus calls for a “large-scale economic policy” requiring public and private funding “of the order of 30 billion per year by 2030” to decarbonize the economy, in priority transport, the largest emitter (32%) ahead of the industry. “This means that all tax loopholes financing fossil fuels must be eliminated, with a timetable”, sums up the president of the HCC, whose report estimates climate-unfavorable spending at 43 billion euros in 2023.
Renovation, individual transport… The slopes of the Haut Conseil
For this, the High Council also points to areas in which the French room for improvement is significant – and urgent improvement. Starting with the massification of the building renovation offer in order to reduce CO2 emissions from construction, the institution proposes. If the ban on renting the most energy-intensive accommodation “represents an important step forward” and the support for households “is structured” for accommodation, the HCC judges that the policies implemented “do not make it possible to trigger a sufficient number efficient complete renovations” to save energy, and calls for “renovation of the most energy-intensive housing”, thus having “means of control”.
There are still 5.2 million thermal strainers (labeled F and G) in France. To achieve the objective of eradicating these poorly or badly insulated dwellings by January 1, 2028, this number “should decrease by 900,000 dwellings per year on average”. However, the 2023 budget “aims to remove 15,000 housing units from thermal sieve status thanks to the MaPrimeRénov’ device in 2023, and to increase this number to 25,000 in 2025”, notes the report. Another point of “blocking”, the training of professionals who do not know all the most efficient insulation techniques, noted Corine Le Queré.
The transport sector must also “significantly accelerate” its reduction of CO2 emissions. Its emissions have only fallen by 2.9% compared to 2019, while it is the largest CO2-emitting sector in France, ahead of industry, with 32.3% of national emissions. “It’s not going at all”, regretted Corine Le Quéré. “Packages of measures” have been adopted by the government to facilitate the energy transition, “but the incentives and the financial means that go with them are insufficient”, according to the High Council. In addition, policies to support the acquisition of low-carbon cars “aggravate inequalities”, judges the HCC, referring to Low Emission Zones, which “pose a risk of exclusion for the most modest households”.
The report places a heavy emphasis on passenger cars, which account for half of the sector’s emissions. Admittedly, the electrification of the automobile follows the scenario set by France, with electric cars having reached 13% of the new market in 2022. But new petrol and diesel models, which still represent the majority of sales, have seen their consumption increase (6.1 liters per 100 kilometers on average) “due to the increase in the weight of cars”, in particular because of the fashion of the SUV. “Current aid and incentives do not sufficiently direct production towards smaller, lighter and more affordable vehicles, which are in line with the spirit of just transition”, adds the HCC.