On Monday evening, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin gave the Wagner troops involved in the uprising three options: they could join the Russian armed forces, return home to their relatives, or leave for Belarus.
Dissertation researcher familiar with Wagner and other mercenary armies Mikko Räkköläinen considers the options offered by Putin to be real.
– He wanted to resolve this crisis as quickly as possible and with as little hassle as possible. This suggests that [Jevgeni] Prigozhin in addition, Wagner’s forces will also be able to disperse home, back to Eastern Ukraine or Belarus, says Räkköläinen.
However, Räkköläinen believes that the attitude of the group members to the given options will vary greatly.
– Impossible to say which is the most likely option and for what [Putinin tarjoamalle] most men go on the trail.
Räkköläinen sees that some of Wagner’s fighters “are certainly disappointed” that Prigožinin ultimately only used them for a rebellion that pursued his own goals.
– Such members may want to go home and are tired of everything, says Räkköläinen.
There are already signs of the Wagnerians’ disappointment. British broadcasting company BBC investigated Telegram groups linked to Wagner, where many said they felt Prigozhin betrayed his supporters.
For the Kremlin, Belarus is a good storage place for Wagner
Räkköläinen considers it possible that even if Putin gave Wagner’s soldiers permission to return home, retaliatory measures may become a reality at a later date – either on the soil of Russia or Belarus.
– There is no guarantee that Putin or the Russian state will keep their promises, that they will not be reprimanded later or held accountable within or outside the law.
of the autocratic president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko the negotiated agreement included a condition that Prigozh and Wagner fighters could move to Belarus. Räkköläinen sees that Prigozhin’s exile “is not very dual”.
– From the point of view of the Kremlin, Belarus is a good storage place for him. Prigozhin is away from Russia, but if you want to do something to him, it is extremely easy to reach him there.
Räkköläinen believes that the soldiers moving with Prigožin are the most loyal of Wagner’s soldiers. He sees that Putin has agreed to let Wagner’s troops, whom he calls traitors, into Belarus, because the Kremlin may fear that they will pose a threat on Russian soil. The Kremlin also has more influence over what happens in the territory of its close ally.
– In this case, Belarus is the first and easiest storage place that was invented for them.
The reason may also be Lukashenko’s own motives. He announced on Tuesday the state news agency of Belarus Beltane according to that Belarus wants the leaders of the Wagner forces to share their experience with the country’s armed forces.
Earlier on Monday, the independent Russian opposition media Vjorstka said that Belarus had started building camps for Wagner soldiers. Lukashenko, on the other hand, commented To Beltathat the camps have not yet been built, but will be built “if Wagner so wishes”.
Wagner’s soldiers can also be forced to join the Russian army
Räkköläinen believes that some of Wagner’s fighters are ideologically motivated nationalists, which can make them voluntarily transfer to the Russian armed forces.
Räkköläinen also considers it possible that Wagner’s soldiers will ultimately have no influence on their fate if they decide to stay in Russia or Ukraine.
– It is not excluded that Wagner’s fighters may not really be asked whether they want to go home or continue the fight. Some of the troops may be forced to join the army.
On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry of Defense announcedthat the Wagner mercenary group is preparing to hand over its heavy equipment to the Russian army.
Räkköläinen does not consider it likely that Russia would use the Wagner forces again since the beginning of the war of aggression, when Russia attacked from Belarus towards Kiev.
Räkköläinen, on the other hand, is certain that Wagner will cease to exist, at least in its current form, in which it has come to be known in the war of aggression in Ukraine.
– As an organization that was that big, that had that kind of performance and that was allowed to operate independently, it will at least not continue.