According to Jyri Lavikainen of the Foreign Policy Institute, President Vladimir Putin’s position in Russia has weakened.
Expert at the Foreign Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen estimated that the leader of the mercenary group Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin to survive would be extraordinary.
– In Russia, the most serious possible crime is to start an armed rebellion against the former power. The situation that the rebel is allowed to keep his life serves as a precedent for the future, Lavikainen said on Sunday in ‘s special broadcast.
On Friday, Prigozhin threatened to topple Russia’s military leadership. The rebellion ended on Saturday night when he reached an agreement with the president Vladimir Putin with.
Prigozhin will have to go into exile in Belarus and probably give up his Wagner forces.
Prigozhin was allowed to keep his life for the time being, but according to Lavikainen, he will have to look over his shoulder for the rest of his life.
– The agreements made with Putin are not valid. He believes that traitors are always punished, Lavikainen said.
Prigozhin will probably no longer be allowed to play a significant role in Russia’s domestic politics.
– Putin lost his monopoly on violence for a while. The guy who caused this will no longer be given power in Russia.
Putin’s position was shaken
In Lavikainen’s opinion, the events in Russia made Putin look weaker.
According to him, Putin’s popularity and status in Russia is mainly based on coercion.
Prigozhin’s Wagner troops were practically able to drive into the city of Rostov unimpeded. According to Lavikainen, they were even met by a happy crowd.
– It says that Wagner and Prigozhin themselves have genuine popularity among Russians, Lavikainen explained.
In videos posted on social media, Prigozhin was even cheered and shaken from the car window as he was leaving his base in Rostov on Saturday.
– It makes you wonder when was the last time Putin was shown spontaneous favor in this way and when Putin could shake someone’s hand from his car window, Lavikainen said.
Lukashenko is the only winner
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko pushed his position in the direction of Russia. In Lavikainen’s opinion, he is the only winner of the conflict.
– Lukashenko intervened in the situation from the beginning and made the negotiation connection possible. It would have been an even greater sign of weakness for Putin if Putin himself or his authorities had had to negotiate directly with the usurper about the terms on which he would end his coup, Lavikainen said.
According to Lavikainen, the military leadership will probably not be changed when Wagner is no longer a threat. The Wagner forces will probably be assimilated into the official Russian army.