The mutiny led by the Wagner militia, then aborted in Russia, sowed confusion and weakened the image of Vladimir Putin and his military leaders. On the evening of Saturday June 24, the head of this organization, Evgueni Prigojine announced that he was ending his advance towards the capital, after having notably seized the headquarters of the Russian army in Rostov, the nerve center of the operations in Ukraine.
“Our columns are turning around and we are going in the opposite direction to return to the camps,” said Yevgueni Prigojine after starting his withdrawal movement. Information confirmed by Vasily Goloubev, governor of the Oblast of Rostov: “The column of the Wagner group left Rostov and headed for its camps”.
Informal mediation
But what prompted the mercenary, who nevertheless displayed an iron determination on Saturday, to backtrack? For several months, relations between Vladimir Putin and Yevgueni Prigojine have been considerably strained. The tenant of the Kremlin even directly threatened his adversary of the day with legal proceedings, while promising his men that they risked nothing criminally if they surrendered.
According to the Kremlin and the Belarusian authorities, Yevgueni Prigojine would have been convinced by Alexander Lukashenko. Throughout the day on Saturday, Vladimir Putin’s “friend” would have acted in the shadows, trying to stop Wagner’s advance: “Evgueni Prigojine accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to stop the movements of the armed men of the Wagner company” accompanied by measures with the aim of starting “a de-escalation of tensions”.
Should we see the hand of Vladimir Putin behind this mediation? Alexandra Goujon, lecturer at the University of Burgundy and specialist in Ukraine and Belarus, considers that the Belarusian president was “used in the negotiations as a messenger allowing the Kremlin’s demands to be transmitted to Yevgueni Prigojine”.
But according to the researcher, Alexander Lukashenko is not only the “puppet” of the Russian regime: “The two leaders have a complicated relationship. to expand his influence in Belarus, while his counterpart wants to retain some leeway in his own country.The balance of power has reversed since the wave of protests that followed the 2020 presidential election. that he owes his stay in power in large part to Vladimir Putin.”
Departure for Minsk
This intervention by Minsk was welcomed by the Kremlin, even if we do not know the exact content of the agreement signed between Putin and the boss of Wagner. However, Moscow announced on Saturday evening that he would move to Belarus. “He allowed Putin to offer a way out for Prigojine. But it is difficult to say whether this exile was imposed on the Belarusian president by the Kremlin or whether it was his own initiative”, decrypts Alexandra Goujon .
On the side of the Russian power, we communicate on the second scenario. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, explained that Alexander Lukashenko “has personally known Prigojine for more than twenty years and that it was his personal initiative” to settle the situation. An explanation that does not convince Alexandra Goujon: “Prigojine is above all a close friend of Vladimir Putin! With this kind of statement, the Kremlin further links Lukashenko’s destiny to that of the Russian regime.”