After 24 hours of confusion and a surprising and enigmatic outcome last night in Russia. After having launched a spectacular armed rebellion, seized control of the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and approached a few hundred kilometers from Moscow. Yevgeny Prigojine finally announced that his men, Wagner’s mercenaries, were returning to their camp to prevent Russian blood from being shed. Shortly before, he had however promised to go through with his action, even if it means dying to overthrow the military command which he has opposed for months. Vladimir Putin had himself denounced a “ treason and claimed that he would be punished severely. Nicolas Gosset, expert researcher on Russia and Eurasia at the Royal Defense Institute in Brussels, answers questions from RFI.
RFI: it is finally a mediation of the Belarusian president, Alexandre Lukashenko, which allowed the de-escalation. Wagner withdraws. Evguéni Prigojine goes to Belarus and there will be no prosecution for him or his men. How can we explain this spectacular about-face ?
Nicholas Gosset: vs‘is very difficult. Obviously, there is a lot of speculation. But you rightly point to the most surreal aspect of this outcome. The man who was publicly pointed by the President of the Russian Federation as guilty of high treason finally finds himself cleared with a kind of pass to Belarus. The role of Alexander Lukashenko is not the last least surprising thing in this whole affair. But in any case, this clearly demonstrates the decay of the monopoly of legitimate violence in Russia since, from now on, it is tolerated by the head of Russian power to mount an armed mutiny and get away with it without any form of penalty, except for an exile that has not even been truly demonstrated since today, no one really knows where Prigojine is.
Evguéni Prigojine leaves the country, but is not prosecuted, even if some of his men are going to be integrated into the regular army and we are wondering about Wagner’s future today. The man was cheered yesterday in Rostov as he left. What assessment for him after these 24 hours ?
A snub, since he lost face and he did not obtain the minimum base of what he claimed to be fighting for, since all this dates back to June 10 when the Russian Ministry of Defense imposed the signing of contracts by the militias Russians. And there in fact, the soldiers of Wagner who did not participate in the mutiny must sign a contract and those who participated, we do not know very well. They have security guarantees, it is said, so they can continue to move between Russia and Ukraine without consequences. Prigojine’s personal ambitions remain a question mark. From the moment it is not subject to the law, everything remains possible for the future or else its very existence is jeopardized, and that we know nothing about. But let’s say that and he and Putin have lost face in this matter unless it’s all really just a “ fake – TRUE coup d’etat and that it was – somehow – to stage a success, in any case a greater breakthrough of the ambitions of the most radical inside the Russian state. This situation is so surreal that anything is possible.
You said that Vladimir Putin is also coming out weakened. Ukrainians speak of a “ humiliation for the Russian president. It’s the term you choose too ?
Let’s say that from the moment he stays in power and he has had marks of support from the individuals of the first circle around him, the humiliation is all relative. What is especially humiliated in this story is the ability of the Russian state to exercise a monopoly on legitimate violence. Since we have nevertheless seen armed men, who do not formally belong to the Ministry of Defense and to the security organs, progress relatively freely throughout the south of the Russian Federation and take control of military installations in the foreground without any gunshots or real armed resistance.
But when Vladimir Putin finds himself having to have recourse to the mediation of Alexander Lukashenko, who is often presented as his rival, can we say that internationally today, his image of omnipotence is very largely tarnished, weakened ?
Yes. That said, on the Putin-Lukashenko rivalry, frankly, that’s not really the point. What is strange is that Alexander Lukashenko, since 2020, and his continuation as the head of Belarus, despite the demonstrations and the enormous repression that followed, has become a “ absolute customer by Vladimir Putin, depending on Moscow’s support to stay in power. We don’t know in what context there was negotiation, we don’t know where it happened, since, theoretically, Yevgeny Prigojine was supposed to be in Rostov-on-Don during the day. So what would have been ? Telephone mediation between Alexander Lukashenko and Evgeny Prigojine ? All of this is so unexpected and lacking in detail that we have come to doubt many elements that have been put forward to us this morning. And the Lukashenko mediation is certainly not the least.
Read alsoWagner rebellion: Yevgeny Prigojine will leave for Belarus, the investigation aimed at him abandoned