For months, he has been repeating it: the clan war has begun in Russia. Russian journalist Roman Anine, founder of the independent investigative media Important Stories (iStories), exiled since 2021, feared a military coup in his country. History seems to prove him right, as the leader of the Wagner militia, Yevgeny Prigojine, declared a rebellion against the Russian army. For this connoisseur of the workings of the Kremlin, the future of Russia now appears darker than ever. “Today, the country has only two destinies: either it falls into a military dictatorship, or it sinks into civil war” he analyzes in an interview with L’Express.
L’Express: After 24 hours of chaos and the threat of a march by Prigojine on Moscow (members of Wagner received the order at the beginning of the evening to return to their camps, editor’s note), the head of Wagner visibly accepted to turn around, after mediation by the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko. No one knows what the next few hours will be made of. But already what do we know about the support available to Prigojine in the ranks of the army?
Wagner’s men entered Rostov-sur-le-Don on the morning of June 24 without fighting, even though it is the headquarters of Russian operations in Ukraine! That says a lot. His army crossed the border and he showed photos and videos of dozens of regular army soldiers who offered no resistance. This can be explained: these soldiers are panicked and do not understand what is happening. Not to mention that shooting at his own fellow citizens is far from obvious for a soldier.
This coup attempt seems to have been prepared for a long time by Prigojine…
Without a doubt, such a military operation cannot be carried out in a day! If you plan to take Moscow, you must be ready and have enough weapons and ammunition. The day before June 24, a source close to the presidential administration reported to me the state of panic within the presidency. Obviously, the administration had known for a week that Prigozhin was up to something, and had attempted a negotiation, without success.
Do we have any idea what the population thinks of Prigojine and his initiative?
It is very difficult to know in a country like Russia, but we have seen the popularity of the Wagner group increase in recent days and we also know that it has some support within the army. Prigozhin may be a criminal, but his statements resonate with many Russians, especially soldiers. He talks about the corruption in the army, says that this war only benefits the oligarchs, that the Minister of Defense is stupid and corrupt… All this is true! Of course, Prigozhin’s criminal pedigree would probably not allow him to become a very popular politician, but at this point thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands of people support him.
For months you have been saying that clan wars are raging in Russia. History suddenly accelerated on June 24. How far can this confrontation go?
It is very difficult to know what is going on behind the scenes, who is supporting Putin and who has rallied behind Prigozhin. For now, we see mostly public statements from people who support Putin, but several sources tell me that many others, including senior administration officials, have taken up the cause of Prigozhin.
The war of succession has indeed been raging behind the scenes for months, today we see the effects with a military coup that can turn into a civil war. This fiasco is the consequence of the policy of Putin, the worst leader of Russia for centuries. When you allow a criminal like Prigozhin to create his own army, supply his men with weapons, artillery, fighter jets and let them do all kinds of atrocities in Ukraine, it is obvious that sooner or later these criminals will turn their guns on you. Many had anticipated it for a long time, except Putin.
We are entering a new “Smuta” [NDLR : “temps des troubles”, 1598-1613]this disastrous period of Russian history during which different clans fought for the throne of the tsar.
Air traffic data indicates that several planes from the presidential fleet and private jets left Moscow on June 24. Do you have information?
Public data shows Putin’s plane departed Moscow and headed for St. Petersburg [sans que l’on sache si Poutine s’y trouvait], then it then disappeared from radar. Furthermore, sources within the private aviation industry tell us that the demand for private jets from Russian officials has increased significantly. The latter are obviously trying to relocate their families abroad.
Until today, many experts were convinced, obviously wrongly, that Prigozhin was protected by Putin…
At iStories, we posed this question to people close to the secret services, the Ministry of Defense and the presidential administration. They all answered the same thing: Prigozhin could not do this without Putin’s permission. I understand why these sources were convinced of this: they were still living in the pre-war reality. Before, it was impossible to imagine that an individual would dare to criticize Putin or the Minister of Defense without anything happening to him.
For my part, I have long had doubts about this analysis according to which Putin used Prigozhin. Prigozhin is a notorious criminal who has tortured prisoners, attempted to kill and poison political opponents in Russia, and killed journalists in the Central African Republic. You don’t control such an individual, not even Putin. The irony is that Putin, like Frankenstein, created his own monster in the person of Prigozhin: a psychopath with his own army.
If Prigozhin has no protectors within the Kremlin or the security services, his operation looks like a suicide mission, doesn’t it?
Yes and no. Sources close to the Minister of Defense tell us that it is not so easy to stop Wagner’s men. They form a real army, very experienced. However, in Russia, they will fight against the FSB, the national guard, or the police. These services can suppress student demonstrations but they are not trained to fight against an army, they do not have tanks, artillery, anti-missile systems….
As for the conventional army, it is mobilized at the front in Ukraine. To fight Prigojine, it would therefore be necessary to withdraw troops from the front line, which is very risky in the midst of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In short, Putin finds himself in a very difficult situation, now facing two fronts.
So far, Prigozhin has not clearly stated his political objective. Does he have ambitions to lead the country?
It seems obvious to me today that he has a political ambition. Telegram channels close to him call him “the most promising politician”. When you lead a military coup, it’s to seize power and become number 1.
What scenarios do you envisage for the political future of Russia?
Unfortunately, I only see two possible ones for the next few years, even decades. The first is a North Korean scenario, or the advent of a cruel military dictatorship, led by Prigozhin or Putin – which is about the same thing. With large-scale repression and a double-locked country, like North Korea, Iran or China. All people potentially dangerous to the regime could then be targeted, in a remake of the great Stalinist purges.
The second is a Somali scenario: Russia would become a failed state, plagued by a civil war between different rival clans.
Either way, the West and China will have a very difficult choice to make: whether or not to accept that one of the world’s major nuclear powers is run by notorious criminals and psychopaths.
In his address to the nation on June 24, Vladimir Putin draws a parallel with the civil war of 1917. How do you interpret this reference?
Vladimir Putin is a former Soviet KGB officer, but he never liked communists. His dream was to reincarnate the Russian Empire and he saw himself as an heir to the line of Russian tsars. In a private conversation, Lavrov once even joked that Putin did not consult anyone except Catherine II (Empress from 1762 to 1796) and Alexander I (Empress from 1801 to 1825)! Putin has a very high opinion of himself. This comparison therefore serves him to place himself in this story and to brandish the specter of a collapse of the “Empire” that he was trying to rebuild.
His goal is actually to scare the population into supporting him. The memory of the civil war, although distant since it goes back more than 100 years, is still very present in Russia. Many books and films tell this story and the memory of this tragedy is transmitted from generation to generation. Putin’s message to the people is simple: beware, history could repeat itself.
What he does not say is that he is the number one culprit of this disaster. It was he who “created” Prigozhin, he who started this war in Ukraine, and he who cultivated the clan war. The mafia system he has created over the past twenty years in the Kremlin is based on several faction leaders: Nikolai Patrushev (the secretary of the Russian Security Council), Viktor Zolotov (a former bodyguard of Putin, now chief National Guard), Yevgeny Prigozhin, Ramzan Kadyrov and others. They constantly fought against each other for resources, power, access to the Kremlin, etc. All the while, Putin was playing justice of the peace. He thought to maintain a balance between these clans so that none would become powerful enough to overthrow him. But today, the system he created threatens his future and that of the country.
Can Putin survive such an ordeal?
I doubt. If he manages to resist, he will have to transform the country into a total military dictatorship. The country can no longer be run as before, and I think that we will see, sooner or later, the end of Putin. This does not mean the end of the regime.