Wagner’s rebellion: between Prigojine and Putin, the story of a long escalation

War in Ukraine the Wagner group will finally stay in

After months of provocations, Evguéni Prigojine seems to have crossed the Rubicon. The unpredictable boss of the paramilitary group Wagner went into open war against the Russian General Staff on Friday June 23. “We are all ready to die, all 25,000. And after that there will be another 25,000. Because we are dying for the fatherland, we are dying for the Russian people who must be liberated from those who bombard the civilian population” , he said on the social network Telegram.

In several audio messages throughout the day on Friday, the boss of Wagner had claimed that strikes had caused a “very large number of victims” in his ranks. He did not fail to accuse Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of being behind these attacks, which he swore to “stop” by force.

According to him, Yevgeny Prigojine would have entered the city of Rostov, where the Russian military headquarters of the offensive in Ukraine is located. It would control several military sites on the spot, including an airfield. “Decisive steps will be taken to stabilize the situation in Rostov. It remains difficult,” Vladimir Putin said in a video address. In an attempt to stem the rebellion, the Russian Ministry of Defense promised on Saturday to “guarantee the safety” of the fighters of the paramilitary group Wagner if they disassociate themselves from the “criminal adventure” of their boss.

Accustomed to provocations

Between the 62-year-old mercenary leader and President Vladimir Putin, the break had already been consumed for a long time. After years of operating in the shadows in the four corners of the world, particularly in Syria or Africa, the Wagner group, founded in 2014 to defend Russia’s interests outside its borders, came out of the woods during the offensive Ukrainian.

While the regular army struggled at the front, the mercenaries quickly achieved military victories. These stunts also put Evguéni Prigojine in the spotlight, who took the opportunity to multiply criticism of the Russian General Staff. In February 2023, while the battle of Bakhmout is still in progress, Wagner’s boss accuses the Russian high command of treason, because he would refuse to provide ammunition to his men. “There are shells. But politicians, bastards, garbage have to put their signatures on it,” he was angry. To obtain additional resources, he goes so far as to threaten the Russian command to abandon its positions in Ukraine.

Latent conflict

Russian Army Chief of Staff Valery Guerassimov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are among Yevgeny Prigojine’s favorite targets. “We have a Ministry of Intrigue instead of a Ministry of Defence, so our army scurries off,” he declared, a few days after claiming responsibility for the capture of the city of Bakhmout.

If he is very critical of the Russian administration, Evguéni Prigojine nevertheless avoids directly attacking Vladimir Putin. Rather, he accuses the military hierarchy of seeking to “deceive” the Russian president, in particular by “hiding” the difficulties encountered by the regular army in the face of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. “One day Russia will wake up and realize that Crimea is Ukrainian. This is a direct betrayal of the interests of the Russian Federation,” Evgeny Prigojine choked on June 21.

While he had so far refused to respond to Yevgeny Prigojine’s provocations, Vladimir Putin described the latest actions of the Wagner group as a “stab in the back” of the Russian people. “What we are facing is nothing but betrayal. A betrayal caused by the excessive ambitions and personal interests of Yevgeny Prigojine,” said the Kremlin tenant. The boss of Wagner, meanwhile, says he is ready to push his offensive to Moscow.

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