If China and Germany had been your friends, you would have long ago told them to just break up.
What a toxic relationship. They talk crap behind each other’s backs and clearly despise each other’s deepest values. Even their friends can’t be in a room together without fighting.
“The only reason you’re still together,” you would say with deep conviction in your voice, “is that you can’t afford a divorce.”
But now China and Germany are not your friends but two of the world’s most economically powerful countries with a deep trade relationship. They are simply allowed to continue with their problematic relationship.
On Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Chinese Premier Li Qiang lead government consultations in Berlin. A kind of couples therapy for two countries worried about the future.
In the background lies a 300 billion euro per year trade relationship that forces the countries to stick together.
Partner and rival
The annual government consultation – where leaders bring a large delegation of ministers – kicked off 12 years ago with fanfare, with Angela Merkel welcoming China’s Wen Jiabao and German TV channel DW reporting that “China is coming to the rescue” with money and investment in the midst of the deep euro crisis.
Now — following China’s support for Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine and heightened tensions over Taiwan — Germany is officially saying that China is not only a “partner” — but also a “strategic rival.”
China, on the other hand, says the two countries must stick together in an increasingly “chaotic and changing world.” Critics in Germany believe that China’s charm offensive has a clear goal – to pour gravel into the G7 machinery and prevent Germany from agreeing to the US’s increasingly China-critical line.
“De-risking” is the strategy
So how do you deal with a partner you can’t afford to leave but still can’t get along with?
Germany and the rest of the G7 countries have come up with a model they call “de-risking,” meaning that you can continue to trade with China, but at the same time find other trading partners around the world. A kind of insurance if there were to be a conflict with China.
It’s an emergency solution that works reasonably well right now – it means that Germany and China can continue their complex and problematic relationship. At least in the short term. A large-scale conflict with Taiwan or Chinese arms deliveries to Russia would change everything.
It is almost impossible to predict how the situation will be in a year. Will China and Germany meet again for government consultations? Or has something happened that finally forces the countries to break up?