The West initially played in the bag of Russian President Putin, but nonetheless, arms aid is of great importance both on the front and later in negotiations with Russia, says Jyri Lavikainen, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute.
The week that has begun has been described several times as Ukraine’s “week of destiny.” Russia is approaching the capital, Kiev, and fighting is taking place across the country.
The West was late with arms aid and at the same time it was playing the situation with the Russian president Vladimir Putin bag, says a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Jyri Lavikainen.
Nevertheless, arms assistance is of great importance to Ukraine.
– Many countries have sent there what Ukraine needs. For example, anti-tank weapons, weapons suitable for air defense. Yes, this is the kind of equipment that will help Ukraine significantly, Lavikainen estimates over the phone.
In addition, several other countries, including Finland, have reported supplying Ukraine with military protection equipment, for example.
The risks lie in the air
Russia is attacking Ukraine from the east, north and south of the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014. However, Russia will not be able to influence aid to Ukraine from the west.
– Russia cannot prevent weapons from being brought to Poland or Romania, for example. Especially in a situation like this, when Russia’s attention is on them beating the Ukrainian armed forces in battle.
Lavikainen does not see any major risks in providing arms assistance across the country. Instead, the potential risks lie in delivering aid by air. The situation could worsen, for example, if Russian anti-aircraft guns destroy Western aircraft.
According to Lavikainen, there is also nothing to suggest that Russia would step up the fighting over Western arms aid, as the fighting is fierce anyway.
Europe stands as one force in support of Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia have been negotiating today on the Belarusian border. Prior to the talks, Ukraine said it was aiming for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
In a televised speech on Thursday, Putin called for, among other things, the disarmament of Ukraine. The Kremlin did not say its negotiating goals on Monday.
According to Lavikainen’s assessment, Ukraine’s assistance will also be useful for Ukraine at the negotiating tables, as the situation on the front defines the negotiating positions and possible agreements.
– In that sense, the provision of arms assistance will also improve Ukraine’s negotiating position.
For example, when the Minsk II agreement for peace in eastern Ukraine was signed in early 2015, the agreement was preceded by fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine. Russia is estimated to have great benefits from the agreement.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has united Europe, Lavikainen estimates.
In concrete terms, the reunification of EU countries is reflected, for example, in the EU’s sanctions on Russia, which have been unanimously imposed by EU member states.