“I am not calling for the collapse of the Russian Federation. I am predicting it”, announces Alexander Etkind from the outset in his latest book, Russia against modernity (Polity Press, 2023). Born in Saint Petersburg in 1955, the historian left his country in the early 2000s and taught at the University of Cambridge, at the European University of Florence and today at the Central European University in Vienna. “Putin and his clique could have stayed in power for another decade, like the Habsburgs could have survived if they hadn’t started World War I. But he decided to start this war,” he observes. he in an interview at The Express. A war which marks the final stage, according to him, towards the fall of the “Russian empire”.
The Express: You seem convinced that sooner or later the Russian Federation will disintegrate. For what ?
Alexander Etkind : Historical experience is instructive: if we don’t know the future, we live in the present and know the past. Now, all the empires have collapsed except Russia, the last empire. In general, it took wars, sometimes world wars.
The decomposition of the Russian Empire is a very long process, which began after the First World War, in 1917, when Poland, Finland and then Ukraine separated from Russia – Ukraine was then re-annexed . In 1991, another big step was taken when fourteen republics of the Soviet Union (the Caucasian republics, the Baltic republics and several republics of Central Asia) became independent states. Ukraine was one of them. This event seems recent to us, but it is already more than thirty years old. Since then, Putin has kept his country in an ice age.
“Siberian regions are probably the key to the future of the Russian empire”
In my eyes, the Austro-Hungarian Empire is the best model for predicting the future of Russia. Putin and his clique could have stayed in power for another decade, just as the Habsburgs could have survived had they not started World War I. But he decided to launch this war.
How is present-day Russia an “empire”?
After the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, Russia officially took the title of “Russian Federation”, consisting of a large number of regions with different legal statuses, for some called republics. Usually, a federation is characterized by the freedom of entry and exit of its members. For example, the European Union is a federation. Britain left after a painful process, but without a war. No similar device exists in Russia. This country is not a federation. This is an empire in decline, which will eventually crumble.
Until now, the Kremlin has used its economic power to establish a feudal system, granting subsidies to the various republics of the “Federation”. The latter have bartered their independence and their national development for these subsidies, distributed thanks to oil money. But the war upsets these balances between the center and the regions: first, a majority of mobilized at the front in Ukraine and soldiers killed come from the poorest regions of the country. Then, the massive Western sanctions will, in the long term, weigh on the finances of the State and limit its capacity to redistribute the manna to buy the silence of the regions.
Under Boris Yeltsin, there was an attempt at decentralization, towards “true federalism”…
In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin’s first concern was to “hold” what remained of Russian territory. To encourage the regions to remain under Moscow’s control, he first encouraged greater autonomy, by modifying the constitution and making reforms [NDLR : En 1996, Eltsine accorde par exemple le droit aux régions d’élire leur propre gouverneur au suffrage universel direct]. Thus, Tatarstan amended its constitution and proclaimed its sovereignty. Its rulers had all sorts of powers to manage their economy. The arrival of Putin put an end to these attempts.
Which could be the first regions to secede?
The starting point would certainly be the Caucasus, before an extension towards the east. How far ? Hard to say at this point. The Siberian regions are probably the key to the future of the Russian Empire. The majority of Russian oil and gas come from two regions of Western Siberia: Khantys-Mansis and the Yamal Peninsula, which could have inclinations to take advantage of their own resources, like the Gulf States. Without them, the central power is deprived of its life insurance.
What about Far Eastern Siberia, bordering China?
China is of course interested in this region. Along this long border of more than 3,000 kilometers, the difference in population density between the south of Eastern Siberia and the north of China is 1 in 100: for each inhabitant on the Russian side, there are 100 Chinese side.
An informal colonization is already at work: the Chinese buy and cultivate a lot of land, cut wood – legally and illegally… The big Siberian cities, even those located far from the border, like Krasnoyarsk, are full of shops and restaurants Chinese. In addition, little is said about what is happening in the Siberian countryside, but the immigration of Chinese peasants is very important there.
Russia is forced to accept this situation. In a peaceful scenario, this informal colonization could gradually lead to the erasure of the border. But there are other options. Several areas of Eastern Siberia once belonged to China and were annexed by the Russian Empire following the Second Opium War (1856-1860). The Chinese call this period the “century of humiliation”. Since then, they have never recovered this region which they called Outer Manchuria. However, Putin made claims of “historic revenge” politically admissible by invading Ukraine. His speech is to say: “We are not occupying these lands, we are reclaiming them.” This argument may echo Chinese territorial losses to Russia.
Are there forms of solidarity between different regions which would consider, in the future, to secede?
There are chat platforms, but they are mostly overseas, run by Russians in exile, mostly in Europe. A Forum of Free Peoples of Russia, created by opponents and representatives of separatist movements, met for the first time in May 2022 in Warsaw, then in July 2022 in Prague. He advocates the creation of a voluntary union of free states, made up of around thirty entities. This movement probably has no real power in Russia, but it is a start.
What would be the consequences of the collapse of the “Russian Federation”, if it happened?
This process will lead to enormous problems, both internally and internationally. The most pressing question will be that of the nuclear arsenal. For the moment, Putin has not drawn the nuclear weapon, due to deterrence and serious threats emanating from the United States, Europe… and perhaps more discreetly from China. In the event of an outbreak, several regions will inherit these nuclear weapons. The country has already been confronted with this problem. In 1991, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from countries such as France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Americans helped dismantle the missiles. A similar situation could therefore happen again with current weapons. Most of them are very old, they must be dismantled, they represent a danger every day, every minute, for the world.
In addition to the nuclear question, the political repercussions of a break-up will be numerous; if several new countries appear, there could be border disputes. But would these wars be worse than the current war? Probably not.
What are the most likely disintegration scenarios?
One can imagine that the map of the new territories created at the end of this process would follow more or less the borders and the current administrative structures of certain republics of the Federation. To date, each region has its own capital, its administration and its own economic and political elite. But these structures are relatively weak, so these regions should develop their statehood. Some of them could try to reach neighboring regions. Neighboring countries could also eye certain territories, such as China in Siberia. It is a long historical process, which could last another century.
“The central power in Moscow will probably survive, a bit like Vienna after the First World War”
In the current climate of maximum repression against all dissent, it is hard to imagine the emergence of any alternative project. We remember the massive demonstrations against the central power in the Khabarovsk region (Far East) in 2020, severely repressed…
Someone has to take charge of this repression: the police, the national guard… All these civil servants are accustomed to fairly high salaries. During the last twenty years, under the reign of Putin, these people changed cars every two or three years, vehicles imported from Germany, Japan… In short, they earned their pay in convertible money. Today, Europe no longer buys Russian oil. If China and India stop buying, there will be no more money to pay these officials.
But this is not the case…
No, but that may change. Oil is brought to India from Western Siberia. However, there is no pipeline linking this region to India. The black gold therefore first passes through the existing pipelines, then is loaded onto tankers which cross the Baltic Sea, bypass Europe and Africa to arrive in India. Before this long journey, the ships must cross the Øresund Strait, a very narrow sea passage (between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea), with shallow waters and where storms are frequent. Denmark is supposed to supervise the pilotage service and therefore provide a pilot for each tanker that wishes to cross it.
So let’s imagine that a union of Danish pilots declares a strike not to board these Russian ships, as some Danish pilots have suggested [NDLR : en mars, des pilotes ont appelé au boycott des pétroliers russes traversant les eaux danoises, mais leur syndicat et le gouvernement ont estimé que le service devait continuer]. The Danish government or the European Union could also intervene.
Again, this is science fiction at the moment. And Europe also has interests to preserve with India…
There are conflicting interests at stake, it is true. But Europe also knows that this route is a way for Russia to maintain its war economy, a war that is on its borders… One day, perhaps its leaders will have to take more radical decisions.
What future for central power in the implosion scenario you suggest?
This is the most important question. The central power in Moscow will probably survive, a bit like Vienna after the First World War, this immense capital of an empire that no longer existed. Vienna was said to be “a head without a body”. At the time, there were huge migrations and a civil war, but it claimed a thousand victims and lasted a week. This is a major event in popular memory, but one that has no common measure with the current war.