(Finance) – According to i final data for May released today by Istat, annual inflation falls to 7.6%, from 8.2% in the previous month. A figure welcomed by the consumer associations according to which, however, the return path is still long and littered with obstacles.
“The confirmation of the data on price growth in May, released today by Istat, reiterates that inflation is slow to recover: according to our estimates, this year there should be 5.7% and we should reach a level close to 2% only in 2026 – highlights theConfesercenti Economic Office –. Therefore, the erosion of disposable income continues (we estimate 16% between 2022 and 2025) and this will also have an impact on the recovery in consumption, which is also slowing down: in 2025 there should still be 18 billion short of the pre- -pandemic. For the commerce sector, the rise in prices entails a further critical issue linked to a possible effect of lower consumption: there is the risk that by 2023 another 73,000 businesses in the commerce sector will close. The urgency is to safeguard the purchasing power of families who are still drawing, where possible, from the reserve of savings to maintain stable levels of consumption, but who could decide to make further selections, given that already the forced expenditure guided by prices of energy and, for example, the payment of growing interest on mortgages (again yesterday the ECB decided on a further increase) are shifting resources towards incompressible items”.
“The data on inflation for May show how something is moving on the price front, and attest to the first positive results of the activities launched by Mimit in collaboration with Mister Prices and the rapid alert Commission for checking the trend of price lists” comments Assoutenti . “Although prices remain high in some sectors, the trend has reversed course and finally price lists are going down again – explains the president of Assoutenti Furio Truzzi –. The most striking case is that of pasta: after the strong price increases recorded in recent months, the accusations of speculation and the threat of a strike launched by Assoutenti, the price lists of fresh and dry pasta slow down their run and grow in May of +12, 8%, against +19.5% in February and even +22% last December. We are winning a battle, but not the war, which unfortunately still looks long in terms of retail prices – continues Truzzi – For this reason, and in view of the drop in price lists, we have decided to suspend the announced pasta strike, but at the time We ask for the definition of a basket of ‘cost-saving’ goods, to be sold in the area at controlled prices in agreement with large-scale distribution, producers and local authorities, in order to support less well-off families and encourage consumption”.
In the current scenario for Federconsumatori and CNA government intervention is needed. The slowdown in inflation, “is mainly due to the measured decrease in the prices of energy goods. A dynamic – underlines Federconsumatori – which still does not fully convince us, since, in our opinion, prices should decrease much more than expected is not happening. Whether you want to call excluseflaction or greed inflation, the fact remains that citizens still pay excessively expensive prices, fueling the suspicion that strong speculative dynamics are still underway. According to a recent study by the ONF – National Federconsumatori Observatory on prices of a basket of 30 essential products, it emerged that, against an inflation rate of 7.6%, the prices of essential products increased on average by double, i.e. by 14% (taking the prices applied in June 2022 as a reference and those of June 2023). An alarming trend, which in many cases diverges from the trend recorded by the costs of raw materials. With inflation at these levels, the repercussions for families are in any case extremely burdensome: according to ONF estimates equal to 2,264.80 euros per year per family. Increases that do not have the same impact for everyone: they weigh much more on less well-off families. It is therefore necessary for the Government to make an important and decisive change of course”.
” The drop in inflation in May to 7.6%, the same level in March after the growth in April, does not allow us to rejoice. All the more so as the price increase in Italy remains significantly higher than the +6.1 % recorded in the Eurozone. After rapid growth, the decline is certainly slow throughout Europe” comments la CNA extension which calls on Italian politics and the EU for “interventions capable of cooling down prices, first of all by combating speculation”. “In fact, high inflation – explains the CNA – can have dangerous consequences on the performance of the economy, starting with the drop in purchasing power and its consequences on domestic demand. The reason given is inflation that does not drop by the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. The combination of high prices and the rising cost of money can turn into a real ‘trap’ for households and businesses. The dynamics of prices remains influenced in particular by the performance of products It is therefore necessary to intervene on the markets, European in particular, which determine the prices of raw materials, developing effective competition. Just as a problem of competition must be resolved in Italy in public services”. CNA is also concerned about the consequences that high inflation can have on the renewal of collective labor agreements. “The increase in prices does not correspond to the growth of added value to be distributed also due to the yearly drop in productivity of the system, mainly due to the lack of infrastructures, tangible and intangible, and the scarce competitiveness of public services. As a result, – he concludes the CNA – the loss of purchasing power of employees cannot be compensated and this could create social tensions which Italy certainly does not need”.
For the Codacons the decline in inflation is only “an optical effect”. “Inflation is falling only thanks to the slowdown in energy goods, with unregulated goods slowing down from +26.6% to +20.3% in May – explains the president of Codacons Carlo Rienzi –. An optical effect, therefore, which alters the inflation data, demonstrated by the performance of the other sectors: food prices remain at sustained levels (+11.8%), like the shopping cart (+11.2% ), impacting the pockets of families”. On the basis of Codacons calculations, in fact, inflation at 7.6% translates into higher spending on an annual basis equal to +2,879 for a household with two children, +2,223 for the family Just to eat, a nucleus spends an average of 907 euros more, for the same consumption. “The Istat numbers – concludes Rienzi – cannot reassure Italians, because the slowdown in inflation is to be attributed solely to the effect optical energy, while for the goods most purchased by households, prices continue to remain at worrying levels. We therefore expect from the Government a concrete and effective intervention on retail price lists in the sectors where prices are growing the most”.
“Italians have spent over 3 billion more on food but due to high prices they have had to cut the quantities purchased in the first five months of 2023” estimates the Coldiretti on the trend of inflation in May compared to the same period last year according to Istat which shows an increase of 11.4% in the prices of food products, higher than the average inflation figure which fell to 7.6%.
“Well, the slowdown is positive and inflation, after the rise in April due to the return of system charges on electricity and gas, is going to drop again. But there’s no need to be enthusiastic given that we have simply returned to the levels of March, while in all the rest of Europe, except the Netherlands, inflation in May is lower than in March – he says Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumer Union –. In addition, stellar inflation remains. For a couple with two children, the +7.6% means a sting equal to 2227 euros on an annual basis, of which 907 are used only to meet the 11.8% price increases for food and drinks. For a couple with 1 child, the additional expense is equal to 2042 euros, 819 for food and drink. On average for a family the blow is 1704 euros, 665 for food products and soft drinks. The record goes to large families with more than 3 children with a beating of 2507 euros, 1084 just to feed and quench their thirst”.