Ukraine’s much-talked-about counter-offensive has been going on for a week and a half. And the hopes from the West are high – perhaps too high.
– It is very unhelpful when many people say that “now Ukraine will win the war”, says Oscar Jonsson, PhD in Russian warfare at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
Ukraine has been backed up with help and support from the West in the form of weapons and other military equipment. Therefore, expectations are now very high that Ukraine will reap success.
“Ukraine not close to winning”
One who has great insight into the Russian war in Ukraine is Oscar Jonsson, PhD in Russian warfare at the Norwegian Defense Academy. He wants to issue a warning:
– You can have expectations in that this is probably Ukraine’s best chance to make a decisive change on the battlefield. At the same time, it is very unhelpful when many say that “now Ukraine will win the war”, he says in Nyhetsmorgon.
He sees a risk of “Ukarina fatigue”.
– Much of that rhetoric has been built up by “now we give Ukraine the military equipment and then they win”. What if they get a success, but are short of the war being over? Do you then lose the political will to support Ukraine? I think that’s a problem with these expectations and the image that Ukraine is this close to winning – which they are not. It is a huge task they face.
“A huge challenge”
The problem right now, he says, is that the West has sent so many weapons to the Ukrainian counter-offensive and therefore has too high hopes that it will deliver a huge victory.
– But a likely scenario is that it goes well, but it does not make a political change in Moscow. In three months, the weapons will be worn out and the ammunition will run out, and it will take another six months to build up an equivalent capability – that worries me.
Ukraine has no easy task ahead of it.
– This offensive gathers all the power you can get your hands on. You’re trying to force areas that Russia spent nine months fortifying into air superiority and against minefields – that’s a huge challenge. It is incredibly difficult, says Oscar Jonsson.