To turn the page on pensions, Emmanuel Macron had announced “100 days” to move forward on other themes. As the end of this period approaches, Elisabeth Borne seems more and more in the hot seat.
[Mis à jour le 15 juin 2023 à 18h23] After having successfully faced a 17th motion of censure on Monday June 12, did Elisabeth Borne obtain the assurance of keeping her position at Matignon? Hard to say, but the day of July 14 will certainly be enlightening. The “100 days of appeasement” advocated by Emmanuel Macron will then be over.
For The world, “since the beginning of the pension crisis, the Head of State has been blowing a hot and cold wind”. Elisabeth Borne tries to multiply the announcements of new major projects within the government. Sunday June 11 on the set of France 3, she ruled out any idea of a reshuffle, stressing that “it is not with you that I will discuss this question” but rather with Emmanuel Macron.
A departure seems to confirm the hypothesis of a great upheaval according to the Parisian. This is that of Aurélien Rousseau, soon to be Elisabeth Borne’s former chief of staff. According to their information, the former director of the Regional Health Agency “leave for personal reasons” but “some voices evoke tensions with the Elysée”. Several people have been approached for this position, but no one has responded favorably to this call.
THE regional daily wonders. “Who would do better than Elisabeth Borne in the current context?” During her speech to the National Assembly during the examination of the motion of censure carried by Nupes, the Prime Minister highlighted that “there is no alternative majority” to hers. A way to consolidate its position and above all to indicate that a change at the head of the government would not change the balance of power existing in the Assembly.
What is Emmanuel Macron’s strategy?
Le Monde believes that two choices are available to Emmanuel Macron: “A managerial reshuffle, which would mean the failure of ministers from ‘civil society’ or a reshuffle for political purposes, which would continue the rightization of the five-year term”.
This second path echoes the threat in the Sunday newspaper by Olivier Marleix, president of the Les Républicains group in the National Assembly. The latter, questioned on the possibility of a new 49.3 on the immigration law, replied that “if the government wanted to pass in force to the National Assembly on a lax text which aggravates things in terms of immigration rather than settle, on a personal basis, I would like us to table a motion of censure.”
There therefore remains a second option: an internal reshuffle, drawing from within the presidential majority. Le Monde judges that this “would be limited to a reshuffle intended to tighten the collective and give it a second wind. It is a question of both reducing a team of more than forty ministers and secretaries of state and separating members government who are struggling to perform their duties.”
Renaissance is working on a rapprochement with Les Républicains
Stéphane Séjourné, the leader of Renaissance, then invited his deputies to “a political meeting” to discuss “the strategy of the majority” according to the Figaro. This would therefore be an opportunity to work on a rapprochement with LR. The Head of State even met on June 6 at the Elysée Palace with Nicolas Sarkozy, as revealed The Express. The former president would have told him that “when France leans to the right, you have to appoint a right-wing prime minister.”
However, the uncertainty at the head of the Republicans would make the president suspicious, who has not forgotten the failure of an agreement on pensions. The leaders of the right-wing party refuse to position themselves publicly on a possible alliance like Olivier Marleix, on BFM TV : “We have nothing to do with the President of the Republic, our project is not the same, so there will be no alliance.”
Who could take over from Elisabeth Borne at Matignon?
The replacement of Elisabeth Borne is not yet confirmed, but behind the scenes the names of potential successors would circulate according to theExpress. The ease pushes to imagine some of the strong ministers of the government settling in Matignon like Bruno the Mayor or of Gerald Darmanin. The first moored at Bercy and does not seem to want to change portfolio, but would he give up an appointment as head of government? The Minister of the Economy, however, would not meet the profile of executing collaborator sought by the Head of State at Matignon. Moreover, he would have greater ambitions for 2027 as the heir to Macronism. As for the Minister of the Interior, he would have the advantage of extending the presidential majority to the right, perhaps too much. Gérald Darmanin remains one of the most divisive personalities in government and drags along cumbersome bills such as the immigration law or his former opposition to marriage for all.
Among the ministers possibly in the race, Sebastien Lecornu could also have a chance, according to several political press titles. Passed from Secretary of State to Minister of Defense, the man rose through the ranks avoiding scandals, remaining rather anonymous and would be appreciated by Emmanuel Macron. On paper, the minister meets many criteria that could make him the executioner of Matignon without erasing the Elysée. Still, few people seem to believe in this appointment.
Another female prime minister?
Other names are mentioned according to the indiscretions of theExpress including some who were already in the running during the previous reshuffle, starting with Julien Denormandie. The former Minister of Agriculture, who is reminiscent of Emmanuel Macron in his early days, left politics but does not rule out his return, provided that it takes place in a position of weight. Only his age and lack of experience would be brakes for some macronists. Catherine Vautrin is also cited, the former minister of Jacques Chirac had almost been appointed in 2022 before the choice finally fell on the current head of government. The ups and downs of the LR policy are the same, but naming it after Elisabeth Borne might feel like a mistake the first time around.
Two last names appear in the list of hypotheses: those of Richard Ferrand and of Gerard Larcher. The first, if he no longer sits among the elected after his defeat in the legislative elections of 2022, remains a fervent defender and a close friend of Emmanuel Macron and would have said he was ready to return to the head of state. The second, current President LR of the Senate, could endorse a form of coalition between the majority and the right, it is only on this condition that the senator would agree to work with the Head of State that he does not wear not particularly in his heart. If this last hypothesis is often cited, it also seems very unlikely.
Which ministers are at risk in the event of a reshuffle?
The names most at risk would be those of Marlene SchiappaSecretary of State in charge of associative life, which drags like a millstone the affair of the Marianne fund. Pap Ndiaye is weakened by his handling of the Lindsay case. Olivier Dussopt And Eric Dupond Moretti could pay for their ongoing court cases. To replace them, France info believes that “more seasoned profiles, broken on TV sets, with a more political CV, are targeted”.