The art of negotiation is not superfluous under a relative majority. Better, it is an absolute necessity to avoid democratic anemia. Sacha Houlié is aware of this. The President of the National Assembly’s Law Commission knows how much the landing of the immigration bill, expected this fall in Parliament, requires skill. So, to hell with the sectarianism of TV sets! The former socialist discusses with pleasure with Éric Ciotti and recently exchanged in the Senate with Bruno Retailleau, whose erudition he praises. With the boss of the LR deputies Olivier Marleix, relations are fresher. The elected representative of Eure-et-Loir is an incorrigible antimacroniste.
Alas, diplomacy is sometimes of no help. The consultations carried out by the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin do not change anything: the executive does not have a majority to have its text adopted, a model of compromise and balance between the left and right wings of the Renaissance. The Republicans, the only potential partners, consider the copy too lukewarm. Measures facilitating the expulsion of foreign offenders? Insufficient. The creation of a residence permit aimed at regularizing foreigners working in a sector in tension? A “call for air” to illegal immigration. Anxious to be on the initiative, LR has tabled two bills on immigration. From the questioning of the pre-eminence of European law to the establishment of quotas, these texts are invotable by the majority. “It’s our Maginot line”, smiles an LR deputy.
“Of course we play the opinion”
It is therefore necessary to cross the Ardennes. Change of gear. Macronie has decided to take public opinion to witness to twist LR’s arm. Supported by polls, she demonstrates that the measures in her bill are desired by the French. 64% of them (and 67% of LR sympathizers) are in favor of the residence permit for jobs in tension, noted in December an Ifop poll published by the JDD. “Public opinion would not understand that LR is blocking this law, says Renaissance MP David Amiel, former adviser to Emmanuel Macron at the Élysée. It would be very costly for them.” His counterpart from the Oise Éric Woerth, a defector from the Republicans, is privately particularly optimistic about the outcome of the negotiation: “They will end up voting.”
Return of the double penalty, Conditioning of the issuance of a residence permit to the mastery of a minimum level of French “… The text is not “Bambi”, likes to remind Sacha Houlié, tempted to place the right at the foot of the wall. “If we go to the vote and we lose, who will pay the price?, he wonders. The executive or those who voted against these measures approved by the French? In terms of firmness, no one has done better.” “Of course we play the opinion, concludes an adviser to the executive. The LRs know that our measures are popular.”
Quietly, a communication battle is taking shape between the government and the right. The first must convince of the harshness of his text, the second must portray him as a “lax” project of a president with a “trembling” hand. The majority insists on the repressive aspect of the project, the right waves the red rag of massive regularizations. “We are in a fool’s game, we pass on the hot potato”, philosopher Bruno Retailleau, boss of senators LR. “As soon as he hears this word regularization, Retailleau’s head turns 360 degrees as in The Exorcist”, laughs in private the boss of the Centrist senators Hervé Marseille. The Vendéen precisely, pretends not to fear for a second the judgment of the French: “I had not yielded at the time on the text of Gérard Collomb while some in my camp told me that it was a mistake because it was going in the right direction. The following year, we exploded the meters [des chiffres de l’immigration]. So it will be very easy to tell the French that we refuse to vote because it is a text of pretense.” The winner of this war will have the favor of an opinion awaiting firmness.
“You have to play Pradié upside down”
In the majority, some hope that immigration is the inverse mirror of pensions. And that an internal slingshot to the LR group saves the government project this time. Sacha Houlié has made his accounts: it would take about fifteen LR votes to win the bet. “You have to play Pradié upside down”, confides a deputy close to Emmanuel Macron in reference to the deputy LR of Lot, implacable prosecutor of the pension reform.
This “fronde” is today a distant hope. Contrary to retreats, the right offers a united face. And also plays the opinion card. Éric Ciotti constantly reminds that the proposals of the right are also approved by the French. 68% of them plead for the abolition of state medical aid and 62% for derogating from European law in terms of migration policy, according to an Odoxa survey. Everyone has their own polls.
Existential stake for LR
“Public opinion is in tune with our proposals, notes LR deputy from La Manche Philippe Gosselin. The government, which does not have the confidence of the French, would be wrong to boast by taking public opinion to witness.” “We can say that the text does not go far enough not to vote for it. We will explain that we vote on immigration laws every two years and that we have to bang our fists on the table”, abounds an elected official LR. A deputy hostile to pension reform is not afraid of the communication exercise. “We will have to do somersaults. But we have already done it on pensions, despite the 65 years provided for in the Pécresse program.”
For the right, winning the war of opinion is an existential issue. LR seeks to demonstrate its uniqueness in view of the 2027 presidential election. “Our position of economic responsibility strongly distinguishes us from Le Pen. Immigration strongly distinguishes us from Macron. We are at the heart of the two electorates that must be recovered “, theorizes Éric Ciotti. This quest for a political space implies a non-alignment with the sovereign policy of the Head of State. The right must convince of the “gazelle modesty” of Macronie to justify its own existence. The MP for Pas-de-Calais Pierre-Henri Dumont analyzes: “It would be political madness to vote for this law. In these cases, you might as well join the majority.”