Some forecasts are hardly optimistic: the conflict in Ukraine could last “several years” because of the “significant forces” of Russia, estimated this Sunday morning the British Minister for Foreign Affairs, Liz Truss. She drove home the point by adding that Moscow may seek to use “even worse weapons”. A few hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would put the Russian army’s “deterrent force” on alert, which may include a nuclear component, on the fourth day of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Faced with the escalation of violence, the countries of the European Union began to deliver “significant” quantities of armaments to Ukraine to enable it to defend itself against the massive attack launched by Russia. At the same time, a humanitarian disaster is looming: the number of refugees from Ukraine has reached 368,000 according to the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and this figure is expected to continue to rise. If the situation on the ground is changing rapidly, several scenarios can for the moment be listed with caution.
- The opening of negotiations
Ukraine’s presidency said on Sunday that it had agreed to talks with Russia and that they will take place on the border with Belarus, near Chernobyl, a decision after mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. “The Ukrainian delegation will meet the Russian (delegation) without setting any preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, in the Pripyat River region,” the presidency said on social media. Earlier in the day, the Ukrainian president had rejected the proposal for talks in Gomel in Belarus, because this country serves as a rear base for the invasion of Ukraine.
This is not the first time that discussions have been discussed. On Friday, Russia said it was ready for negotiations with Ukraine on the condition that the country in the grip of a Russian invasion “lay down its arms”. In the process, the United States warned Kiev that it should not accept Moscow’s offer, because discussing under threat “is not real diplomacy”, the spokesman said on Friday. of American diplomacy, Ned Price. If negotiations were to take place in the current context, Ukraine could find itself in an uncomfortable position, already weakened by the war.
This scenario could include the partition of the territory which would be marked by the separation of the Donbass. Several possibilities could be studied: the two Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk could be annexed directly to Russian territory or else be subject to the organization of a self-determination referendum. A situation that would recall what happened for Crimea in 2014. If the population approves the attachment to Russia by an overwhelming majority (96.77%), the result has not been recognized by many countries, including Ukraine. But according to some researchers, Russia may not be limited to Donbass.
“The third military option available to Moscow is the conquest of the provinces which separate, on the continent, these self-proclaimed republics from the Crimea annexed in 2014”, declared on February 22, the specialist Cyrille Bret, teacher at Science Po on the site The Conversation. In other words, it would be a matter of making the land link between Russia and the separatist Moldavian territory of Transnistria (pro-Russian, not recognized by the international community). In such a situation, Ukraine would no longer have access to the sea.
- The establishment of a puppet regime
In order to advance his pawns in Europe, Vladimir Putin could be tempted to force the installation of a puppet government, close to Russia. A scenario that turns out to be plausible in more ways than one. Indeed, for several days, the Russian authorities have been attacking the capital Kiev, proof that they want to directly target the Ukrainian regime. “According to US intelligence, Russia aims to overthrow power in Kyiv and install a puppet state that would be orbited. This would explain why Russian forces are charging into Kyiv by the most direct route, which is through Chernobyl,” wrote on Twitter. , Cédric Mas, military historian, on February 24.
The hypothesis of the establishment of a puppet state in Ukraine is also reinforced by the speech that Vladimir Putin gave on Monday February 21 where he recognized the independence of the pro-Russian separatist regions of Ukraine. During this speech, the head of the Kremlin clarified his vision, already outlined in a long text published on July 12. In these writings, he indicates that “the Russians and the Ukrainians form only one people” and advocates an anti-state discourse vis-à-vis Ukraine. According to some scholars, the possibility of a coup attempt is on the table. On February 25, the Russian president urged the Ukrainian army to take power and lay down their arms before negotiating.
However, the scenario of a total invasion of Ukraine remains unlikely. “Even if Putin managed to defeat the Ukrainian military forces and occupy the whole country – which is not certain – he would continue to face increased resistance from the population. His troops could suffer many casualties and risk getting bogged down in the country”, considered on February 24 in L’Express Tomas Ries, professor of security and strategy at the Higher School of National Defense (Försvarhögsklan) in Stockholm, Sweden.
- Could Vladimir Putin go further than Ukraine?
This question encompasses another question: could Russia attack a NATO country? While this is a difficult scenario to consider at the moment, it should not be ruled out, according to Anna Colin Lebedev, lecturer in political science and specialist in post-Soviet societies, who indicated on Twitter: ” We need to realize that the ambition of the project is global, beyond Ukraine (…) What the massive attack on Ukraine teaches us is that the most radical scenario, the most improbable, the one we refuse to see is the one that risks being implemented.”
Moreover, Vladimir Putin could decide that other countries should be part of his Russian zone of influence. Note that Belarus has become Moscow’s rear base, a sign that the sovereignty of this European country could be in danger. Among the other states that could be in the sights of Russian power: the Baltic countries or Romania. If for the moment, Vladimir Putin’s speeches are centered on Ukraine, an intervention in other countries of the former Soviet Union should not be ruled out.