After eight months of protest, demonstrations resume, sporadically in Iran. Opposite, the Islamic Republic responds with massive executions of opponents and militarizes its regime, under the impetus of the all-powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Kasra Aarabi, director of the Iran program at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, is a leading expert on this increasingly powerful paramilitary organization, the backbone of the regime. Passing through Paris at the invitation of the Jean-Jaurès foundation and the press association EIPA, the Iranian-British researcher met L’Express: he recounts the grip of the Revolutionary Guards on Iran and his worried about their rapprochement with the Putin regime.
L’Express: Since the death of Mahsa Amini in September, Iran has experienced unprecedented waves of protest, although more discreet in recent times. Can these demonstrations against the regime resume massively?
Kasra Arabi: These demonstrations are not a flash in the pan: they are part of a wave of insurgency that began in 2017, demanding the fall of the Islamic Republic. The Iranians understood that this totalitarian Islamist regime could not evolve and that it was therefore necessary to change the regime.
The protests that have been taking place since last September are unparalleled in their scale, size and longevity. They continue, with ups and downs. Some people are still taking to the streets, but the protest has mostly turned into civil disobedience since January, February. Unfortunately, the repression against civilians is commensurate with events: unprecedented.
From my contacts with the leaders of the demonstrations, but also by observing the recent restructuring within the Revolutionary Guards, it appears that Iran is preparing for a new wave of massive demonstrations. Very loud rumors are circulating about an increase in gas and petrol prices, coupled with a reduction in state subsidies. This would be a tipping point in the dispute.
Opposite, the regime multiplies the executions of demonstrators. Is he also preparing to repress even more?
The regime is preparing for this new insurrection. It is increasingly in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, an organization that has shown Ali Khamenei [NDLR : le guide suprême] how dedicated she was to the survival of the regime. Within the security apparatus, the Revolutionary Guards have the capabilities, the desire and the resources for mass repression.
In 2021, President Raisi appointed Ahmad Vahidi Minister of the Interior, a man who is on the world’s most wanted list for his involvement in terrorist attacks in Argentina in 1994. He lacks the skills to be Minister of the Interior, if not his career as a commander in the Revolutionary Guards… Same thing at the local level: in June 2021, very many candidates for the municipal “elections” (who have nothing democratic) were affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards and won. The mayor of Tehran, for example. These links allow them to better coordinate repression at the local level during waves of protest. They have to control the streets.
Since November, the regime has also been carrying out a series of chemical attacks, mainly targeting girls’ schools. More than 300. Why? Because young women are leading the protest movement. The regime will enter its second phase of suppression of the movement, and I fear that it will be very, very violent. The international community must adopt a policy to target this repressive apparatus and limit the bloodshed in the Iranian streets.
The Iranian regime is already heavily sanctioned. What more ?
Like Putin’s regime, the Islamic Republic is an oligarchic kleptocracy, corrupt to the bone. While the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards impose a violent Islamist order on the Iranian people, their sons and daughters live a sumptuous life in the big Western cities, in Paris, Berlin, London or Toronto, thanks to the money of the corruption. Westerners must treat these Iranian oligarchs the same way they treated Putin’s oligarchs.
First, create a transatlantic task force to identify and sanction the Iranian regime’s oligarchs and elites; then apply a travel ban to them; withdraw their passport (in case of dual nationality); hitting where it hurts, freezing their bank accounts.
Next, close the regime’s ideological training centers in Europe, most often linked to al-Mustafa University [NDLR : un organe de propagation de l’islam chiite, avec des écoles et universités affiliées dans plus de cinquante pays]. This organization spearheads the indoctrination of the Islamic Republic, playing a direct role in the recruitment and radicalization of foreign nationals. How can this kind of schools, which depend directly on Khamenei’s office, be present in Europe? We must close their offices and expel their representatives.
Kasra Aarabi, director of the Iran program at the Tony Blair Institute for global change.
© / Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Some also ask to place the Revolutionary Guards on the list of terrorist organizations. What difference could it make?
Beyond the symbol, such a measure would be very useful: the current sanctions do not prevent the Revolutionary Guards from disseminating their violent Islamist propaganda in Europe, while we observe attempts on their part to develop their terrorist ideology in West and to radicalize Westerners. We saw it with the attack on Salman Rushdie last August.
Is the hope of an Iranian nuclear agreement blocking the Europeans?
This nuclear deal is long dead. Joe Biden said so publicly. But when you talk to European leaders about it, they reply that they want to stick to the text, even if the Islamic Republic violates its obligations on uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirms that Iran has exceeded the 60% threshold for uranium enrichment, well beyond the authorized 3.67%, and has found traces of particles 83% enriched. However, Europe is still hesitating.
The Europeans obviously have other problems in mind, with the conflict in Ukraine as a priority. But the Islamic Republic is also in Ukraine! These are Iranian drones, provided by the Revolutionary Guards, which strike Ukrainian civilians. Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that if left unchecked, these Iranian drones will soon strike elsewhere in Europe. A transatlantic approach is essential, and until there is a plan B, the Iranians will believe that their actions have no consequences.
In recent weeks, the Iranian regime has released several European prisoners, including French. Belgium has released an Iranian “diplomat” sentenced to 20 years in prison for planning an attack in Paris. What do these exchanges say about Europe? And of Iran?
Assadollah Assadi, this so-called “diplomat” who organized terrorist attacks in the heart of Paris, was found guilty and sentenced by a European court to twenty years in prison. On his return to Iran, he is celebrated as a hero, with medals and flowers. The Revolutionary Guards see this as a major victory since, when Assadi was arrested and imprisoned, they responded by taking a Belgian aid worker hostage, and this strategy paid off.
This episode shows the true nature of the Revolutionary Guards: it is not a state army, but an Islamist militia that acts like Daesh or Al-Qaeda. This organization has its own program of indoctrination and radicalization. And look at his modus operandi: terrorism, hostage taking and hacking.
Obviously, the release of this Belgian hostage and the French prisoners is wonderful news for them and their families. But the fact that the Revolutionary Guards are celebrating a victory should alert us: these decisions put more Europeans, and especially Iranian-Europeans, in danger. For Tehran, hostage-taking works. I fear that these will multiply.
You describe the Revolutionary Guards as an armed militia in the service of a state. In Russia, in the same genre, Wagner has taken off considerably. Are these two organizations comparable?
The Revolutionary Guards are above all an ideological organization, created by the gathering of seven Islamist militias to ensure the overthrow of power by the clergy in 1979. Wagner and the Revolutionary Guards share a hatred of the West. The growing proximity between Vladimir Putin and Ali Khamenei, thus between Putin and the Revolutionary Guards, opens up major possibilities for cooperation between the Guards and Wagner, intelligence sharing and joint operations against Westerners in Africa. . Or elsewhere.
This strategic relationship between Moscow and Tehran can give Putin access to the Revolutionary Guards’ terrorist networks. The Kremlin could thus strike the West without having to take responsibility for it, on the model of what the Islamic Republic is doing in the Middle East: militias strike, Iran denies all responsibility and the West cannot respond. I fear that this system will make its appearance in the Sahel.
Almost every night, the Russian army sends Iranian drones to strike kyiv. What does Tehran receive in exchange?
This is a very important topic, and we don’t have all the answers. We know that Russia is transferring satellite technology to Iran. We also know that Moscow and Tehran coordinate to circumvent Western sanctions: ironically, the Islamic Republic has become Russia’s economic lifeline. Which, moreover, shows the state of the Russian economy…
Russia also defends the Iranian regime in the UN Security Council. In the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, we have seen Russian diplomacy literally place itself on the side of Tehran… The Russians are helping Iran on the international scene, they could also do so internally. Relations between the two countries have deepened so much that Putin could send his security forces to lend a hand to the Iranian regime in the event of demonstrations about to overthrow power. He has already done the same thing in Syria, Belarus or Venezuela. Even though times have changed and I don’t think Russia will be able to replicate this pattern, Khamenei hopes the Russians can help him if needed.