Missile strikes on Ukrainian cities may be Russia’s way of making the expected counterattack more difficult, says Aki-Mauri Huhtinen, a military professor at the National Defense University.
Ukraine is expected to start a major counter-offensive soon, with which it would take back its territory occupied by Russia. The counterattack has been talked about throughout the beginning of the year.
Also the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced last week that the political decision to launch the attack had been made.
Military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri Huhtinen it may be that we don’t see a traditional mass attack, but a series of attacks of varying intensity.
According to him, right now, the military forces of Ukraine and Russia are roughly equal, while a successful attack requires, according to traditional military doctrine, a threefold superiority. However, Ukraine has a qualitative advantage.
In addition, Ukraine would have to reserve additional strength for the control of the occupied territories, because Russia would certainly try to take the territories back. It should be able to be countered in order for Ukraine to be able to keep the territory it has occupied.
Huhtinen thinks that, at least in June, Ukraine will continue to use up the Russian forces with precision strikes instead of a major attack. Ukraine’s strength may not be enough for a mass attack, says Huhtinen.
– They [ukrainalaiset] are able to influence quite well everywhere in the territories occupied by Russia. To shoot long-range indirect fire, to take away traffic connections, to disrupt the grouping of Russian troops and at the same time to destroy material and supply depots.
Huhtinen thinks that it makes sense for Ukraine to continue making precision strikes behind the front line and thus weaken Russia’s performance.
He believes that in the coming weeks, the front will see only small attacks by Ukrainians and only a single slightly larger blow deeper into the Russian front. Another option is for Ukraine to take a risk and concentrate forces in one direction.
Missile strikes bind Ukraine’s air defenses
Huhtinen reminds that regaining its original borders is Ukraine’s primary goal. It does strive for that in the longer term. Russia also sticks to its goals.
At this point, however, there are many question marks hanging over the planned big attack.
The most relevant of them is related to Russia’s performance. Russia has recruited at least a hundred thousand men this year.
There is no information about where these forces are or what their level of training and equipment is. They have also patched the gaps of the worn troops.
Russia has done extensive fortifications along the front. According to Huhtinen, the effect of the fortresses depends on whether Russia can occupy the fortified positions quickly when the Ukrainian attack comes.
Another question is to what extent Russia is capable of destroying the Ukrainian offensive forces with its artillery.
Russia is also preparing for an attack by Ukraine
It is also possible that Russia fires missiles at the population centers of Ukraine, because this way it ties the good anti-aircraft systems that Ukraine received from the West to the defense of the cities.
Of course, Ukraine would like its offensive forces not to be exposed to Russian airstrikes and anti-artillery operations, Huhtinen states.
He doesn’t want to guess what the Ukrainian attack will be like. However, the Ukrainian political leadership is committed to carrying out a counterattack.
Huhtinen reminds us of the old “military wisdom”:
– The equipment, planning and training may be right, but when contact with the enemy is made, the one who makes fewer mistakes usually succeeds.