Since the WHO director’s speech at the end of May 2023, a controversy has swelled on social networks over the dangerous threat that “disease X” would represent for the world. But there is nothing…
After Covid-19there is disease X the future pandemic feared? During a speech on May 22, the Director General of the WHO warned that “the end of Covid-19 as a global health emergency is not the end of Covid-19 as a global health threat“. “There threat of another emerging pathogen with even deadlier potential remains” warned Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus whose comments were relayed on the WHO Twitter account. On social networks, many Internet users feared the arrival of the “Illness X” who is on the list of pathologies that can cause a potential “international danger” according to the WHO. What is this ? Should we be worried? Definitions and clarification.
What is Disease X?
Disease X (also called Clade X) is a concept invented by the World Health Organization (WHO) which corresponds to a theoretical disease, a kind of hypothetical health threat. In other words, disease X does not exist in real life. It is used by scientists and researchers to “modeling” to anticipate a potential health crisisset up targeted research (surveillance, development of effective treatments or vaccines, screening tests for better diagnoses, etc.) and rapidly deploy appropriate measures if it were to occur at a given time. “Disease X is not made to terrify, but to ensure that the international health community is ready to tackle all forms of threats, predictable and unpredictable“explains the WHO in a statement. The letter “X” stands for “everything we don’t know“, says Richard Hatchett, Managing Director of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) which had published a chronicle on the UN website (December 2021), portraying Disease X.”This is’a new disease about which we will know little when it appears : it may or may not be deadly, highly contagious and pose a threat to our way of life. We also do not know when and how it will cross the viral barrier and infect populations. On the other hand, we know that the next disease X will appear and that we must be ready“, he explains.
A list of 9 dangerous diseases feared by the WHO
“Not all new diseases have pandemic potential, but the next one that does could be as bad as Covid-19, or worse.”
Since a WHO meeting in Geneva that took place in February 2018, the Illness X figure in the list of pathologies that can cause a potential “international danger”. Also on this list 8 other diseases that pose the greatest risk to public health (list updated at the end of 2022):
- The Ebola virus
- Marburg virus
- Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF)
- Lassa fever
- Henipaviral diseases (Nipah virus)
- Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
- Covid-19
- Rift Valley Fever (RVF)
This list is not exhaustive, nor does it indicate the most probable causes of the next epidemic, underlines the WHO which reviews and updates this list as time goes on as needs arise and methodologies change. Based on the priority diseases, WHO then works to develop research and development (R&D) roadmaps for each of them. “This list of priority pathogens has become a point of reference for the research community as to where to focus energies to deal with the next threat.”explains Dr Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist of the WHO.
Can Disease X cause a new pandemic? In 2023?
No scientist can be sure or predict the year of the next pandemic. But the appearance of a new pandemic in the coming years cannot be ruled out. “Pathogens (like viruses) continually emerge and re-emerge […] Not all new diseases have pandemic potential, but the next one that will have one could be as serious as Covid-19, or even more serious“, says Richard Hatchett.
- Preparing for the Next Pandemic: Developing Vaccines for ‘Disease X’ – UN Site
- Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts – WHO