Who would have believed it ? Described not so long ago as a holdover from the 20th century, the energy of the atom is once again enjoying favorable winds. In Europe, the Nuclear Alliance, launched by France and bringing together 16 States, plans to deploy a third of additional installed power by 2050. In Japan, the government is reactivating the sector by building new power plants, which seemed unthinkable since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. In the United States, the Department of Energy now considers that it is urgent to move to the massive deployment of SMRs, these small modular reactors.
“We are seeing a shift from the Chernobyl and Fukushima moments. The need to reduce carbon footprints in a context of climate change, but also the imperative of energy independence reinforced by the war in Ukraine, are creating a new impetus for nuclear “, underlines a European diplomat. The other side of the coin, the controversies on the subject are also coming back in force. “Opponents of this energy source had fallen asleep a little, thinking they had won the battle. Now they are waking up,” says Myrto Tripathi, president and founder of the Voice of Nuclear association. Thus, in France, the merger between the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) and the Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) turned into a psychodrama when it was simply a question of gaining in efficiency and streamlining procedures. In Brussels, it’s worse, the diplomats describe a real trench warfare. “France is toughening its tone but it is coming up against German virulence. Added to this is the inertia of NGOs who are having a hard time arbitrating between climate and nuclear”, notes an observer.
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European cacophony
“In each camp, there is a very strong desire to find scapegoats,” notes Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director of the Europe program at the Institute of Economics for Climate. The States of the Union should however play the card of interdependence. Their economies remain extremely linked. They need to import, on a more or less large scale, electricity. And their supply chains are feeling the swings in inflation in their neighbors. Moreover, these disputes send very bad signals to international investors. “But this analysis comes up against real propaganda,” laments Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, director of the Energy and Climate Center of the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri). In Germany, for example, it is not possible to discuss the storage of electricity when solutions will have to be found to manage the intermittency of renewable energies. Conversely, in France, it is difficult to be heard on wind turbines without being accused of being idealistic, anti-nuclear, or destroyer of the landscape…
“These debates have not only bad sides. They show that we are finally asking ourselves the right questions. For a long time, at European level, we only saw energy from the angle of competition. It was not about knowing whether nuclear power was necessary. It was above all a question of breaking the historical monopolies”, analyzes Cécile Maisonneuve, founder of the Decysive forecasting firm, adviser to the Institut Montaigne and to the Energy and Climate center of Ifri.
Old and numerous French weaknesses
For France, these incessant disputes still carry a risk. That of further weakening a sector already wrung out by several decades of renunciations, political cowardice and shaky compromises. The points of weakness, identified by the recent parliamentary inquiry into the loss of our energy independence, are numerous: lack of technical skills, longer maintenance operations than in other countries, failed shift towards the fourth generation of reactors with the abandonment of the Astrid project… The closure of Fessenheim, while this installation could have continued to operate with a series of works, deprived us of precious gigawatts in the winter period. The fratricidal struggle between Areva and EDF penalized us for export. She played a lot, for example, in the loss of a contract with the United Arab Emirates, valued in 2009 at 40 billion dollars. A market finally won by the Koreans. “In view of these thirty years of defection, I find it miraculous that we haven’t had more problems than that”, estimates Claire Kerboul, consultant in nuclear physics, former researcher at the CEA and author of the book The Sustainable Nuclear Emergency (De Boeck), published in March.
Reviving the sector will take time. “It is not enough to order a few EPRs to get it going again,” warns Dominique Grenêche, professor at Sciences Po and the National Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Techniques. On the ground, companies are getting organized to find technicians and cope with an acceleration in order books. “But the keystone of the system is still missing, a new Messmer plan which had enabled our country, in the 1970s, to respond to an order for 26 nuclear reactors, thanks to a solid industrial organization”, estimates Fabien Bouglé, author of Nuclear, the hidden truths (Editions du Rocher, 2021).
“A lack of time”
Thus, the difficulties of our major operators contrast with the voluntarist speech delivered in Belfort a little over a year ago by the Head of State. Over the recent period, the CEA has been marginalized even though it is one of the best research organizations in the world. For its part, EDF remains very weak. It must find a way to improve the performance of the existing fleet, to complete the post-Fukushima work while looking into the extension of the lifespan of the reactors, the development of the EPR 2 and that of the SMRs. A very heavy program for a single company. “There will be no real revival without stopping the Arenh, this system forcing EDF to sell off part of its electricity to its competitors”, warns Fabien Bouglé. Except that, given the delays in unraveling such a mechanism, it will undoubtedly go to completion, scheduled for the end of 2025.
“We are facing a complicated situation. An absence of tempo. As in an orchestra, the actors in the sector rehearse their scales while waiting to know where the conductor is and what score we want to play”, describes Cécile Maisonneuve. “We would need a hundred-year vision to decide on our choices in terms of energy, adds Claire Kerboul. However, our politicians continue to practice “at the same time”. Their vision does not exceed a few years and in the best of times case, a few decades.” Funny revival.