A very bad coup organizer, this Joe Biden… On the eve of the elections, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had warned his supporters about his American counterpart, who was seeking, according to him, to “overthrow” him thanks to a secret alliance with the opposition. But the alleged putsch fomented by Washington obviously did not take place : THE stay won the electoral battle and will lead Turkey with an iron fist for at least another five years.
Towards an appeasement with the Americans?
During his campaign, Recep Tayyip Erdogan unleashed his blows against the United States, while cajoling Russia with his “friend” Vladimir Putin. Behind the scenes, European diplomats are timidly hoping for a change: Berlin, in particular, is waiting for a “reset” of its relations with Turkey, and Paris, “a clarification” of Ankara’s foreign policy. Everyone wonders how far the aggressiveness of the unbeatable Turkish president will go towards the West. “Erdogan sees his re-election as the triumph of his policy, which he will therefore pursue at all costs, believes Steven Cook, Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. He wants Turkey to remain Turkey, neither to East nor West, with a fiercely independent foreign policy.”
His victory could, however, ease tensions: re-elected, he has less need to set himself up as a defender of the homeland attacked from all sides. The in-between rounds gave a glimpse of the “new” Erdogan, who is entering his third decade at the helm of Turkey. On the form, the stay was much calmer than before the first lap. He gave a long interview with CNN, the favorite channel of American Democrats, to discuss its foreign policy, in a relaxed atmosphere, sometimes peppered with bursts of laughter. On the merits, however, the Turkish president continued to castigate the errors of the West and their “unbalanced” relationship with Russia.
His duet with Vladimir Putin remains at the heart of the questions. During the campaign, Putin vocally supported him at the inauguration of a unit of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, built by Russian giant Rosatom. For its part, Gazprom has agreed to postpone by one year the payment of the debt that Turkey owes Russia for its gas… “Putin openly and friendly supported Erdogan during this election, underlines Kerim Has, Turkish analyst based in Moscow and specialist in Russian-Turkish relations. Financially, Russia has campaigned for the re-election of the president: as Turkey allows him to circumvent Western sanctions, Moscow focuses on its short-term interests and the survival of its economy.
A disturbing element within NATO
Ankara’s unpredictable policy also plays into Putin’s hands within NATO. For a year, Turkey has been blocking Sweden’s entry into the Atlantic Alliance, claiming that Stockholm is harboring Kurdish “terrorists” on its territory. But, as with Finland in April, the situation could soon be unblocked. “Erdogan will no doubt ratify Swedish membership of NATO just after the election, perhaps before the Alliance summit in July, predicts Kerim Has. He used this blocking of Sweden to rally the nationalist vote , by showing that he could stand up to the United States and foreign powers. But deep down, he is not opposed to the enlargement of NATO.
Especially since, since his little electoral cloud, Erdogan will not escape the terrible economic reality that is hitting his country: in two years, the Turkish lira has lost 80% of its value and inflation stands at 105% . Ankara urgently needs Western investment, and the European Union remains its number one trading partner. “At this level of economic relations, Turkey cannot cut itself off from the West, notes Steven Cook. But very rich sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf – Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia – have taken on disproportionate importance in Turkey. These countries might want to manipulate or at least influence Erdogan, as they have become essential to him.” The sultan will have to play the skilful diplomats. One more time.