President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the second round of the presidential election in Turkey this Sunday, May 28. He is re-elected for five years. Many projects await him.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains master of Turkey for another five years. Despite a strong desire for change from part of the electorate, the 69-year-old head of state started out as the favorite in the second round of the presidential election with a five-point lead at the end of the first round. May 14, where he won 49.5% of the vote. In power for twenty years, he won 52.1% of the vote, against 47.9% for his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu after counting nearly 99.7% of the votes, and declared the winner by the electoral commission.
The victory was not as wide as hoped for by the presidential camp. And some at AKP headquarters say they are a little surprised that the 5-point gap between Kemal Kiliçdaroglu and Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the first round is not greater this Sunday evening, reports our special correspondent in Istanbul, Daniel Vallot. Many Erdogan supporters were hoping for more than 60% of the vote. “ But the main thing, a member of the AKP party is satisfiedis that the victory is achieved and that the Turkish president can continue the work started just 20 years ago “. Spontaneous rallies formed everywhere in the cities where the “ king triumphed, especially in the heart of Anatolia.
” To be against Erdogan was to be against the state »
Three things could give hope for an alternation, explains to RFI Samim Akgonül, director of the Turkish studies department at the University of Strasbourg. First, the wear and tear of power after 20 years as head of state. Then, an economic crisis that has lasted for two years with hyperinflation and the impoverishment of the population. The official inflation rate was over 40% over one year after having exceeded 85% in the fall, the result of a steady drop in interest rates desired by President Erdogan. The latter asserts, contrary to classical economic theories, that high interest rates encourage inflation and he indicated during his campaign that he had no intention of raising them.
The Turkish lira has lost more than half its value in two years and reached 20 pounds to the dollar this week. According to official data, Ankara spent 25 billion dollars in a month to support it. But its collapse seems inevitable. Especially since foreign currency reserves have gone into the red for the first time since 2002.
Last reason that could have caused the defeat of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the earthquake that occurred last February which devastated entire areas of Turkey, left 50,000 dead and 3 million homeless. ” These three causes could have swept away any diet in the world, analyzes researcher Samim Akgonül. But the rational reasons for voting in Turkey take second place to the irrational reasons linked to national identity on the one hand and religion on the other and the way of life. In all three cases, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to convince that he was an integral part of the state. To be against Erdogan was to be against the state. So half of the voters had that feeling of voting for the state. »
” Immense challenges to overcome together »
The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan was greeted with a concert of congratulations which reflect the importance of Ankara’s role on the international scene. The first to hail his victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin saw in it “ the logical result » of a « dedicated work at the head of the country and clear proof “from the efforts of the Turkish President” to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy “. A little later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his part said he hoped ” further strengthening of the strategic partnership “between Kyiv and Ankara, ” as well as the strengthening of our cooperation for the security and stability of Europe. Turkey plays a mediating role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It was at the center of discussions concerning the agreement on the export of Ukrainian cereals by sea. A partner of Ukraine, to which it supplies combat drones, it is also close to Russia, on which it depends for its energy and wheat supplies.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also praised Recep Tayyip Erdogan, calling Turkey and Germany ” close allies “, of which ” people and economies are deeply connected “. ” I look forward to continuing to work together as allies within NATO on bilateral issues and global challenges. “, tweeted US President Joe Biden. ” France and Turkey have huge challenges to face together, also reacted Emmanuel Macron on Twitter. Return of peace to Europe, future of our Euro-Atlantic Alliance, Mediterranean Sea. »
Despite these calls from Europeans to work in cooperation, researcher Samim Akgonül at RFI leans towards a scenario in which Recep Tayyip Erdogan risks being more radical vis-à-vis Europe: “ He has allied himself with the nationalist right and radical Islam. He will absolutely not force his way into the European Union. He could side with more authoritarian countries like Russia, there are seeds of that, but also China. We can expect a rightwardization and an Asianization of Russian foreign policy. »
At the regional level, Recep Tayyip Erdogan now has five more years to closer to its Syrian neighborthe attempts made in recent months having failed despite Russian mediation. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad demanded before any meeting with his counterpart the withdrawal of Turkish forces stationed in northern Syria under rebel control and the end of Ankara’s support for rebel groups opposed to Damascus. Turkey, which has launched several incursions against jihadist and Kurdish groups in Syrian territory since 2016, welcomes on its soil 3.4 million Syrian refugees who fled the war. Erdogan announced in early May the construction of 200,000 housing units in thirteen sites in northern Syria to allow the return ” deliberate of at least one million people.
Fear for fundamental freedoms
Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also have to face several challenges at the national level. One of his priorities on the will undoubtedly be to relieve a population out of breath in the face of inflation. The other challenge is the reconstruction of the regions affected by the earthquake of February 6th. The president has promised to rebuild 650,000 homes in the affected provinces as soon as possible. The total damage cost of the disaster amounts to more than 100 billion dollars.
” It’s time to put aside the disputes of the election campaign and achieve unity and solidarity around the dreams of our nation “Launched the head of state to the crowd massed in front of the presidential palace in Ankara. But, among his opponents, this reappointment at the head of the country raises fears of a new threat to fundamental freedoms. In its 2022 World Report, Human Rights Watch estimated that Turkey had set back decades on human rights under Erdogan’s presidency.
” I think it will get worse », Estimates the researcher Samim Akgonül with RFI. ” In 20 years of power, the entire state apparatus is under the orders of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The state campaigned for his re-election. From this re-election, values such as human rights, the rule of law or participatory democracy will really be put in the background. I think we are starting a very difficult period with regard to fundamental and universal freedoms in Turkey. The re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes ten years to the day after the start of the large “Gezi” demonstrations which had spread throughout the country and had been severely suppressed.