He is one of the finest connoisseurs of the mysteries of the Kremlin. Investigative journalist specializing in the secret services, Andrei Soldatov founded with Irina Borogan the highly respected independent news site Agentura.ru in 2000. Increasingly threatened, he left Russia in September 2020 and is wanted by the Kremlin, on charges of “spreading false news about Russian troops in Ukraine”. Andrei Soldatov is today, like Irina Borogan, a researcher for the Center for European Policy Analysis and both collaborate with the prestigious journal Foreign Affairs. They published Exiles, emigrants and Russian agents (Gallimard), an essay updated after the start of the invasion in Ukraine, which looks back on a century of turbulent relations between the Kremlin and Russian emigrants.
For L’Express, Andrei Soldatov explains how Yevgueni Prigojine, the boss of the formidable group of Wagner mercenaries, who recently claimed responsibility for the capture of the city of Bakhmout in Ukraine, is useful to Vladimir Putin, whose strategy he is carrying out international. Without faith or law, Prigojine could extend its dangerous activities to new territories, fears the journalist. According to him, the Russian president also takes advantage of the rivalry between Prigojine – very virulent towards the hierarchy of the Russian army – and the powerful Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, to whom he acts as a counterweight. As for the former prisoner who has become a militia leader, he dreams of a post in the Kremlin. Interview.
The group of Russian mercenaries Wagner, which has just claimed the capture of the city of Bakhmout, in Ukraine, and which is also present in Africa and the Middle East, has sworn to weaken the West. What danger does it represent for our democracies?
Andrei Soldatov The danger is real. Evgueni Prigojine, the leader of Wagner, is very intelligent, inventive and without any scruple: he is not held back by considerations that traditional political actors might have. He is much more aggressive and daring.
We know that the Russian military intelligence services are engaged in assassination operations, for example in Europe. One can, unfortunately, easily imagine that, in the near future, Wagner’s men could be sent to Europe or other continents to carry out operations against the community of Russian political émigrés.
There is a huge demand: the Kremlin is focusing more and more on this issue. Prigozhin is always trying to find new ways to be useful in the Kremlin – a bit short of people who could go and kill his enemies. The ideal is people whose disappearance would bother no one and whose connection could not be traced back to the Kremlin. But this is exactly what Prigojine offers.
Evgueni Prigojine’s criticisms of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his ineffectiveness in Ukraine are very violent. Why does Vladimir Putin let him express himself like this?
In Russia, the army is huge. Putin uses Prigojine to balance the generals, to unseat them. He likes to make his elites uncomfortable, that’s how he controls them. This is especially true for military leaders. Putin understood that the longer the war lasts, the more powerful these generals can become. So he needs someone who is loyal to him, and who is nothing without him, to come after them.
Before the war, Shoigu was a very popular minister. It should be remembered that he was in the government long before Putin became prime minister and then president. Shoigu has been there for thirty years. Putin trusts him, but at the same time he understands that he is a powerful figure. Certainly, his popularity is declining, due to the disappointments of his army in Ukraine, but he is known. Unlike the other members of the Russian government (apart from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov): young technocrats that no one knows.
Is this a way for Prigojine to obtain Putin’s favors in order to later obtain a political position?
There are several options for Prigozhin, politically. He might try to support a political party. The leader of the Just Russia party, Sergueï Mironov tries, for example, to obtain his support: he wants to create a kind of alliance with Wagner. But I don’t think it’s very serious.
The second option is to gain official recognition within the Russian bureaucracy. This is what the oligarch Boris Berezovsky did in the second half of the 1990s, when he became deputy secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, a very powerful body. Prigozhin may be dreaming of the same job. Especially since to sit there, it is not necessary to be a soldier, bureaucrat or politician. It is enough to be chosen by Putin…
You have to keep in mind that Prigozhin is not just at the head of a company of mercenaries. He is increasingly active in many fields. And not just in disinformation, with its troll farms. Now he is trying to get a place in the Russian IT program. He has built a center dedicated to this in St. Petersburg and is trying to obtain government contracts. He tries to help Putin in so many areas. Its economic activities are important. But they all depend on government contracts. They wouldn’t exist without Putin’s support.
As the Ukrainians prepare their counter-offensive, is Prigojine, who announced that Wagner was going to withdraw from Bakhmout, still useful on the ground?
Yes, I think it’s still useful. And even if the Ukrainian counter-offensive succeeded, he would still be useful. Because he would take his anger out on the generals again. Putin could thus, in the event of failure, transfer the frustration of the population to the military hierarchy. But he could also blame Prigozhin, accusing him of wasting a lot of resources for a poor result. Putin therefore has a large number of interesting options. He can designate culprits as he sees fit.
Note, however, that Putin has tried not to punish senior officers since last summer, after being aggressive in the first months of the war with his security services and the National Guard. He apparently decided it was best to continue to make it look like everything was fine.
To what extent do Wagner’s operations abroad reflect Putin’s intended foreign policy?
In sensitive areas, especially in Africa, a region that is becoming increasingly strategic for the Russian president, Wagner is doing exactly what Putin wants him to do. Its autonomy is only apparent. Its soldiers are supervised by Russian military intelligence and respond to the strategic objectives of the Kremlin. They are absolutely not independent, whether in Africa or in Ukraine.
They are told to go to such and such a region to fight. As soon as they decide to do something independent, ammunition and other resources stop coming to them. They are completely dependent on the army to be able to fight.
Prigozhin seems popular in Russia. Can we imagine him dreaming of a presidential destiny?
I don’t think it’s possible, because he has no support from Russian elites. However, in a country as large as Russia, it is necessary to be supported by the regional authorities, the oligarchs, the big companies. And Prigozhin has none of that. He tried to place a governor in his hand in Saint Petersburg, doing everything to unbolt the one who is in place, because he needs this base as a political launching pad. But he failed, precisely because Putin understood that and won’t let him.
Regional leaders and oligarchs do not like Prigozhin: they consider him very aggressive and unpredictable. On the other hand, he is quite popular in certain military and radical circles. These people are getting louder and louder, but I don’t think they can play the slightest role in deciding who gets to the top of the Kremlin.
Could Putin consider, at some point, that Prigozhin is going too far? What are the red lines?
It seems that Prigozhin has always tried to push back the red lines. But these red lines are defined by Putin himself. And no one knows where they really are. And that’s the whole problem in Russia: there are no immutable laws or strict rules, everything is decided by one man. Nobody knows, moreover, what is the exact nature of the relationship between Prigozhin and Putin, or between Putin and Shoigu.
In an article for Foreign Affairsyou explain that the creation of the Wagner group is rooted in a tradition that can be traced back to the Spanish Civil War… Can we really compare the two situations?
Yes. In the 1930s, Stalin sent military advisers to support Republican forces in Spain. There, they lived under Spanish-sounding names. One of them, the legendary Soviet officer Haji Mamsurov, calling himself “Colonel Xanti”, is said to have even inspired Ernest Hemingway for his character of Robert Jordan in his novel. For Whom the Bell Tolls.
The Spanish Civil War took a very important place in the mythology of the Russian army and, before that, of the Soviet army. It has this glorious image: it is a conflict where Russia fought its real enemy, fascism. All this had a very strong impact on the military. The idea that the Kremlin could send soldiers under another uniform and a false name to another country to fight for the good cause, and without officially appearing, comes from the Spanish Civil War.
Has the West taken the measure of the Wagner threat? Is his answer sufficient?
Placing Wagner on the list of terrorist organizations, as in Lithuania, France and the United Kingdom, is a good decision. This is the way to go. If this becomes widespread, it will become more difficult for some African countries to use Wagner’s services, as it would be tantamount to hiring a terrorist organization. The problem is that many Western countries are quite slow to react to the Wagner threat and to find a solution. Because these types are very aggressive and bold, but also very fast and on the move. However during this time, Wagner, which has abundant resources, does not cease expanding.
Should we fear that the Wagner group is expanding into new geographical areas?
This threat must be taken seriously. They don’t have to send hundreds of men. It may start with a small group of people acting as military advisers, just to please the Kremlin, and then building up an armed force. In view of the serious possible consequences, it is therefore better to remain attentive.