Russians are forced to leave their homes – and the Russian state is forced to repel attackers.
The pushes across the border from Ukraine make it difficult for the Kremlin to relax.
– This is not something that the Russians can sweep under the carpet, says British expert Mark Galeotti.
On Monday, queues of cars stretched from the border areas of Belgorod, Russia, as alarms went out about armed groups advancing across the border. The region has repeatedly come under some shelling from the Ukrainian side.
The unrest at the border in recent days followed a series of border incursions and the largest so far.
– It is important to put it in context with the fact that Ukraine’s military intelligence has stepped up its work with assassinations and sabotage inside Russia, says Mark Galeotti, British and Russia-specialized political scientist, historian and author.
– It’s about making sure that Russians, especially Russians close to the border, realize that this is a war that will affect them too.
Other TV pictures
Russia’s tightly controlled state media has reported the events at the border, albeit with restraint and with a focus on the actions of the authorities. Instead of traffic jams and plumes of smoke, the images show governors and officials announcing that the situation will soon be under control.
– Even a newspaper like Rossijskaja Gazeta, the state’s official, has been forced to cover the latest breaches. Whether they wanted it to or not, it has become national news, says Mark Galeotti.
On previous occasions, it has not been obvious that border violations would be mentioned at all. When a small group crossed the border and caused uproar in Russian cities in March, however, Russia countered with a large-scale robotic attack on Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin personally described as a major revenge.
The groups behind the incursions consist at least mainly of Russian volunteer units that stand on the side of Ukraine. But Russia insists they are Ukrainians.
– Because you want to minimize the image of Russians who show themselves willing to take up arms against the Russian state, says Galeotti.
Lots of red lines
The problem then is that at some point it could be seen as Ukrainian aggression against Russian territory – as acts of war that cross any of Vladimir Putin’s stated red lines.
But there have been many such red lines, points out Mark Galeotti. They have concerned assault weapons, artillery systems, robotic systems. Most recently, the Kremlin raised the alarm about the risks the West faces if it sends fighter jets to Ukraine. The other day, the first deliveries were promised.
– I think that by now the Russians are aware of the risks in calling wolf, says the British academic.
– As I see it, there is only one real red line, which runs at whatever constitutes a direct threat to power in the Kremlin. Even in the case of the Crimean peninsula, it is doubtful.
Embarrassments
It is only a few weeks since a drone apparently exploded in the Kremlin, in the middle of Moscow. Attacks and provocations like these will at least be very embarrassing for Vladimir Putin, according to Galeotti.
– It will not bring him down. We will not see mobs in the streets storming the Kremlin. But what it does is it erodes the regime’s legitimacy and makes it harder for it to deal with future challenges, whether it’s military setbacks, the fall of Crimea, an economic collapse, or whatever.