This is a first for a French president. Emmanuel Macron will travel to Mongolia on Sunday May 21 for a brief visit to this landlocked country between China and Russia in which Westerners are showing growing interest. The French head of state will go there after having participated in the G7 summit, in Japan, in the city of Hiroshima, between this Friday and Sunday.
In Ulaanbaatar, the capital of Mongolia, Emmanuel Macron will dine with President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, the Elysée announced. He will also visit the Genghis Khan Museum, the great Mongol conqueror of the 13th century, who will lend part of his collection to the Nantes History Museum for an exhibition scheduled for October 2023. He will leave for Paris at the end of the evening.
“The fact that Mongolia is on the way back allows us to make this historic first by giving it a very special meaning,” explained the entourage of the President of the Republic to AFP. “Mongolia is a landlocked country between Russia and China, but also a country which has a model of government which is liberal, which holds elections, which has known alternations, and which moreover seeks to diversify its partnerships in order to be more robust and able to deal under better conditions with its large Russian and Chinese neighbours”, added this source.
The geostrategic challenge
The French presidency mentioned a “very important issue” on the “geostrategic plan”, which is part of Paris’ desire to “loosen the constraint exerted on Russia’s neighbors and open up to them the choice of their options “.
This visit also aims to “strengthen and rebalance the bilateral relationship” which has united the two countries since the 1960s, explain on point Antoine Maire, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “Mongolia has always been caught between two fires, and even more so since the invasion of Ukraine,” he continues. And to add: “Its strategy is based on a triangulation of its relations. Above all, it does not want to rush its powerful neighbors, in order to retain room for maneuver and benefit from trade.”
On the bilateral level, France considers that there are “very significant possibilities for cooperation” since Mongolia, “90% dependent on coal for its electricity”, has a “problem” of “decarbonizing its economy”. The idea is therefore to try to solve its enormous pollution problems, in particular in the capital. “For this, Mongolia needs foreign direct investment, not having sufficient financial resources”, analyzes with Echoes Eve Barré, economist at Coface.
Significant mineral wealth
Mongolia is full of mineral wealth. A windfall that has generated robust growth for a decade in this North-East Asian country, as well as strong demand for office space and luxury apartments in the capital. Mongolia “has the largest reserves of Asia”, recalls Eve Barré, but “they are still poorly exploited”. In this regard, France has a flagship project with Orano (ex-Areva), present in the country for 25 years. “France supports the uranium mine project which must now go beyond the pilot project stage”, indicates the Elysée to the economic daily.
But this wealth nevertheless arouses social tensions, the repercussions of mining extractions taking time to benefit the three million inhabitants. According to the Mongolian National Bureau of Statistics, 29.6% of Mongolians lived below the poverty line in 2018, while an additional 15% of the total population was just above. Furthermore, 7 out of 10 poor people do not have access to one of the basic services such as drinking water, sanitation or a sustainable source of heating.
The Asian country has already been the subject of growing interest in recent years from the United States, as part of their strategy to thwart the rise of Beijing. Currently, 86% of Mongolia’s total exports, all goods combined, go to China. Half of these Chinese purchases concern coal.
However, Mongolia suffers from several handicaps. “Only two components of political risk and governance, among the six that we monitor, are good: civil liberty and political stability, explains to Echoes Thierry Apoteker, President of TAC Economics. But, in terms of corruption and government effectiveness, the signals are red.”