leading Belarus Alexander Lukashenko his health has been the subject of much speculation in recent days as he has hardly been seen in public since last Tuesday.
Last Tuesday, he took part in the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, but seemed tired and avoided even short walks. He missed the president Vladimir Putin hosted a gala dinner and later a speech in Minsk.
According to the opposition’s unconfirmed claims, Lukashenko would have been treated at the hospital on Saturday. On Sunday, he did not participate in the national holiday in Belarus. On Monday, the Belarusian state-run news channel Pul Pervogo published the first photo of the country’s president in almost a week.
Senior researcher Ryhor Nizhnikau The Foreign Policy Institute considers it exceptional that Lukashenko has missed such important opportunities. On the other hand, it does not necessarily indicate a more serious health problem.
– Anyone can get sick, Nizhnikau says.
However, at ‘s request, Nizhnikau assessed what could happen in Belarus if Lukashenko died or could not continue leading the country due to illness.
Russian agent’s successor?
In recent years, Belarus has increasingly come under the control of Russia. According to Nizhnikau, Lukashenko has power in practice only in domestic politics.
According to the researcher, Russia would also choose Lukashenka’s successor.
There is no obvious candidate, but most likely the successor would be from Lukashenko’s inner circle and would have a background in the security services.
– He might have cooperated with the Russian security services, or would be a Russian agent himself, says Nizhnikau.
The successor’s power would be confirmed through formally manipulated elections.
Lukashenka’s son in charge?
Alyaksandr Lukashenko himself has been bringing his son to the public for years Mikalai Lukashenkowho is currently 18 years old.
Mikalai, who is also known as Nikolai in Russian, has represented his father on state visits and has already been dressed in military uniforms as a child. Lukashenko has been assumed to be preparing Mikalai for power.
Ryhor Nizhnikau does not consider Mikalai’s rise to power possible.
– Belarus is not a Central Asian dictatorship where the leader could just choose a successor, especially his own relative.
Part of Russia?
Russian President Putin has long been talking about the fact that Russia and Belarus should unite before long.
What if, after Lukashenka, Russia would simply annex Belarus?
According to researcher Nizhnikau, Russia currently does not have the resources for a state union because of the war of aggression in Ukraine.
– Annexing Belarus would only double Russia’s problems. It wouldn’t be easy, says Nizhnikau.
Opposition to leadership?
Lukashenko’s power faltered in the fall of 2020 after the falsified presidential election. At that time, opponents of the regime demonstrated for months until Lukashenko suppressed the protests with heavy violence.
Now the situation is completely different. According to Nizhikau, the opposition has no chance of coming to power because its leaders fled the country after the protests. It lost contacts and support within the country.
– Many in Belarus feel that the opposition left them to their own devices, says Nizhnikau.
The situation could only change if something were to happen in Russia that would no longer support the Belarusian government.
At that time, the Belarusian administration could no longer rely solely on violence and financial aid from Russia.
New leader more pro-Western?
Still, not everything necessarily goes according to Putin’s plans. Russia has hardly had time to prepare very well for the post-Lukashenka era.
The decision to attack Ukraine has also shown that Russia does not understand the affairs of its neighboring countries very well.
The successor chosen by Russia may not prove to be as loyal as Russia would like.
According to Nizhikau, it has typically happened in former Soviet Union countries that the successors of autocratic leaders have not been as pro-Russian as their predecessors.
– He could choose his own line, says Nizhnikau.
The successor could, for example, liberate Belarus’ internal conditions and try to improve relations with the West. However, it would require the European Union to have a clear plan in case of Belarus. There is currently no such thing.
– For example, the EU should communicate that if you hold free elections, you could get visa freedom, says Nizhnikau.
If the EU has no prospect of better relations, the future leader of Belarus is left with only one option: cooperation with Russia.
The story was updated at 18.12. Added fresh information about Lukashenka’s appearance on Monday.