(Finance) – Shops continue to decrease. Compared to 2019, at the end of 2023 there will be over 52 thousand fewer trade companies, for an overall decline of -7%. An acceleration of the desertification process affected by the double crisis experienced by the sector which, after the stop imposed by the pandemic, has seen the recovery interrupted due to the effects of inflation and high energy prices, which have eroded the spending capacity of families : in the last two years, the purchasing power of Italians has in fact dropped by 14.7 billion euros, over 540 euros less per household. A real collapse, which weighs on the fabric of neighborhood shops more than the online competition. It is what emerges from “Commerce today and tomorrow”the study on the future of commercial distribution conducted by Confesercenti and IPSOS, presented today in Rome at the Sala di Vibia and Adriano in Rome, in the presence of Minister of Enterprise and Made in Italy Adolfo Urso.
The survey on the future of commerce – Confesercenti and IPSOS conducted an intergenerational survey of one thousand consumers of all ages, from Baby Boomers to Generation Z, to assess their preference for the online and offline purchasing channel. From the answers of the interviewees, a more favorable picture emerges for traditional retail than is generally believed. Offline is still the preferred channel. Despite the progressive affirmation of eCommerce, physical stores continue to be the preferred purchasing channel for six of the nine product categories examined. The set of those who bought exclusively, mainly or sometimes online in the last year is the majority, in fact, only in the ‘travel and vacation’ sector (where it reaches 72%), electronics and technological products (62%) and fashion ( 52%). The share of customers who, in the same period, bought only, mainly or sometimes in physical stores, on the other hand, is the majority for all the other six types: sportswear and articles (54%), cosmetics, perfumery and body care ( 58%), furniture and furnishing accessories (69%), take-away food and drinks (69%), household cleaning products (77%) and food (82%).
Stores are not for boomers – Not surprisingly, Baby Boomers make up the most offline shopping age group, while Generations Y and Z are more online-oriented. But while the preference for eCommerce is particularly marked for generation Y, formed by those born between 1981 and 1996, the following generation Z seems to return to positively evaluate the shopping experience in physical stores. The so-called Zoomers, in fact, although more ‘online’ than generation X and Baby Boomers, exceed the average propensity to purchase online only for food and household cleaning products, take-away food and drinks, cosmetics and electronics . But if the risk posed by online commerce – moreover used more and more also in neighborhood commerce – therefore appears to be reduced, the same cannot be said for the state of uncertainty created by the slowdown in consumption.
The decline in purchasing power – The erosion of real incomes was in fact particularly strong already in 2022, during which there was a loss of purchasing power of 11.8 billion euros. A trend that unfortunately will continue this year too: according to our estimates, in 2023 the purchasing power of households will suffer a further reduction of 2.9 billion euros and the spending capacity achieved in 2021 will not be recovered before 2027 .
Energy inflation – Weighing the long wave of the upward trend in energy and gas prices, which have grown rapidly in the last two years. Increases that have spilled over into production, transport and distribution costs, inevitably leading to a generalized increase in the final prices of products and services. An energy inflation from which we have not yet recovered: in April, consumer prices recorded an increase of 8.3%, half a percentage point more than in March. And in the first four months of 2023, the inflation rate was 8.8%, exceeding the 8.2% inflation average recorded in 2022.
The effect on savings – To face the increase in prices, households used up their reserves. In 2022, Italians allocated about 52.9 billion of savings accumulated by families to consumption and, without a trend reversal, they will burn another 27 billion in 2023.
The expensive life empties the carts – Even if it cushioned the impact of inflation, the sacrifice of savings was however not enough to maintain household consumption levels. In 2022, the volume of retail sales fell by -0.8%, a synthesis of an increase of +1.9% recorded by non-food products and a real collapse of -4.2% for food goods. A trend that worsened in the first quarter of 2023: between January and March, food sales volumes fell by an average of -4.7%, while non-food sales recorded a decline of -1.6%, for a overall drop in volumes of -3%.
The pasta case – The situation appears particularly serious for some specific food products. This is the case of pasta whose sales, in the first quarter of this year, suffered a drop of 10.7% in volume. A decline never seen before for the symbolic product par excellence of the Italian gastronomic tradition in the world, and which risks having serious repercussions on the many productive excellences of our country linked to it.
The impact on neighborhood shops – A decrease compared to 2019, in absolute numbers, are above all fashion stores (-8,553 units compared to 2019, with a drop of -6.3%), even if the highest percentage reductions are recorded by Newspapers and stationery items (-13.5%, due to 3,963 fewer companies). Firms active in the sale of bread and cakes (-6.1%, due to 679 fewer businesses) and meat (-5.7%, -1,663 firms) also fell sharply. The loss for bookshops was more contained (-2%, or -112 businesses). Not all product sectors, however, are doing badly. This is the case of companies specializing in the sale of fruit and vegetables, which grew by 2% compared to the last year before the pandemic, for a total of 432 more companies. Shops specializing in fish, crustaceans and molluscs also did well (+107 businesses, for a positive change of +1.2%) and those in beverage distribution, which increased by 291 businesses over 2019, with growth of +4.5% compared to the period before the pandemic.
Difficult to open a new business – More than shop closures, the problem is the lack of new openings. A trend evident from the data on the birth and death rate of businesses: in 2022 only 22,608 new businesses were born, 20.3% less than in 2021. A completely insufficient number to compensate for the over 43,000 businesses that have lowered the shutter forever, and which closes the year with a negative balance of over 20 thousand units, for an average of over two shops disappearing every hour. And in 2023 the situation does not improve: in the first three months of the year new openings are still 18% lower than those recorded in the same period of 2019.
The future (and how to change it) – “Considering the current trend, it is possible to estimate in the next seven years – between now and 2030 – a contraction of about 73,000 neighborhood businesses (-11% of the total), at a rate of 18 shops disappearing per day. of a future that can be changed. Confesercenti proposes a double platform of interventions, for the recovery of consumption and for the support of shops and workshops. To restart household spending and combat the high cost of living, – highlights Confcommercio – it is necessary quickly implement the fiscal delegation, reducing the pressure of taxes on households.In particular, it would be advisable to detax the contractual increases for the next two years: such a measure could generate 3 billion euros of additional consumption starting from the next contractual round. at the same time, to support neighborhood activities, it is necessary to introduce structural measures, with a training package for entrepreneurs, support for innovation, advantageous taxation for small distribution companies with a turnover of less than 400 thousand euros a year, and the coupon dry for commercial leases, subjecting access to the granting of a rent agreed to the lessee, verified and guaranteed by trade associations. We are convinced – concludes Confcommercio – that, with these measures, it would be possible to reduce the erosion of the market shares of small surfaces, recovering 5.5 billion euros in sales, and saving almost 30,000 neighborhood businesses from disappearing in the next seven years “.