Inflation of 44%, a currency devalued by half in two years and the disastrous management of the earthquake of February 6 (50,000 victims) were not enough. The anti-Erdogan tidal wave, expected in the first round of the presidential election, this May 14, did not take place. With 49% of the vote, the outgoing president is even well positioned for the second round, in two weeks. And this, despite the polls which favored his rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. But Erdogan’s electoral base is solid.
“Deeply rooted, she is particularly grateful to him for having given his country a leading global role”, analyzes Didier Billion. For the Deputy Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, the strong polarization of society has, in addition, completely frozen the political balance of power. In some cities devastated by the earthquake, Erdogan won nearly 70% of the vote!
Despite the incompetence of his government, Erdogan is perceived as the saviour, who will be able to take up the challenge of reconstruction… Worship of the leader? For the Turks, Erdogan remains the one to whom we turn to avoid chaos. His party, the AKP, said of “order and stability”, did he not win the legislative elections on May 14? During the interval between the two laps, there is no doubt that the stay will be able to play on this concern: do the Turks really want to bring to power his adversary who, while leading a coalition of six parties, will have to scrap with a Parliament won over to his enemy? In the voting booth, this fear of disorder is likely to weigh heavily.