Oxford byelection called, and divided Tories can’t afford to lose it: Expert

Voters in Oxford and three other federal ridings will head to the polls in by-elections June 19, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Sunday.

The other three by-elections will be held that day in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount in Quebec and in Portage–Lisgar and Winnipeg South Center in Manitoba.

Up for grabs are two seats won by the Conservatives and two by the Liberals in the 2021 general election.

Byelections are at best a loose way to gauge a party’s political standing, although successes and failures are always well-spun, said University of Waterloo political scientist Peter Woolstencroft.

“Sometimes it’s like trying to read the meaning of a gust of wind,” he said. “On the other hand, there are always questions – how did the party do in the byelection compared to what happened last time or the history or expectations?”

For example, the Conservatives cannot afford to lose long-held Oxford, he said.

“It’s not likely but what if it happens. What if it goes Liberal? The Conservatives will be a little anxious about Oxford because they had a disputed nomination meeting. The Christian right was told to go away, maybe they will go away.”

Lawyer Arpan Khann, who served as Ontario co-chair for Pierre Poilievre’s successful leadership campaign and ran unsuccessfully for the Tories in Brampton in 2019, won the nomination for the Conservatives in Oxford.

After he won, the president and vice-president of the Oxford riding association resigned.

Former Tory MP Dave McKenzie then announced he would be supporting a local realtor, a Liberal candidate for that party’s nomination, in the by-election

His daughter was one of the candidates who vied unsuccessfully for the Conservative nomination. McKenzie was MP in Oxford for 19 years and retired in January, triggering the by-election.

In March, pro-life candidate Gerritt Van Dorland was disqualified from running for the Conservatives.

A spokesperson for the Conservative Party said its national candidate selection committee disqualified Van Dorland for failing to disclose “required information” during his application process.

All these factors could spell trouble for the Conservatives, Woolstencroft said.

The Liberals have not yet chosen their candidate for Oxford. Western University professor Cody Groat will represent the NDP. He is an assistant professor in history and Indigenous studies at the university.

Despite anti-Trudeau sentiment and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s strong talking points, Woolstencroft doesn’t expect the Liberals to lose their seats in Quebec or Winnipeg South.

Maxime Bernier is putting most of his resources into getting votes for the People’s Party of Canada in Portage-Lisgar, Woolstencroft said. The PPC earned almost 22 per cent of the vote there in the 2021 election

“Bernier has to do at least as well as that. If he gets 10 per cent, then his party is in big trouble. If he gets 25 or 30 per cent, he will say we’re on a roll.”

The four byelections in one day put pressure on the financially challenged NDP, Greens and PPC, but not the Liberals or Conservatives, Woolstencroft said.

“These are very early days,” he cautioned about any predictions.

One thing voters can count on after the byelections, different narratives from winners and losers, he said.

“The parties are expert at spinning,” Woolstencroft said.