There has been a lot of speculation about when the Ukrainian spring offensive will begin. According to some, it is already underway in Ukrainian Bakhmut.
Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi believes that the big battle will take place at the end of May – but not against Bachmut.
– I think it will take place on a broad front towards Luhansk and Zaporizhzhya, with support directed towards Kherson oblast, he says.
Earlier this week, Russian military bloggers stated that the offensive has already begun against the background of the Ukrainian successes in the town of Bachmut. Also the Ukrainian military commander, Roman Kostenko, states for The Guardian that it is now being rolled out step by step.
According to the Eastern District of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine has recaptured almost 18 square kilometers around the city in recent days.
At the same time, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy states that more time is needed before the offensive can begin, and that they are waiting for the armored vehicles that have been promised.
Part of information warfare
According to Joakim Paasikivi, the statements are part of information warfare. Regarding the Ukrainian claims, he believes that it may be as Zelensky says – that you need more time and resources. But it could also be as Konstenko claims – that the offensive is already underway.
– The last week’s statements have been characterized by expectations management, expectations are dampened somewhat. If things go well for Ukraine, they have hedged for that, if things go badly, they have hedged for that too, he says.
Offensive on a wide front
Paasikivi believes that the battles in Bachmut and Donbass are important for the “big plan”, this because they want to bind the Russian units in the area so that they cannot advance elsewhere.
– The Ukrainians are feeling themselves in different places, and it will accelerate when the Russians back down.
The big battle will take place at the end of May – and then on a broad front, he believes.
– I think the main direction will be in Zaporizhzhya with a stop south towards the coast. It will probably also be on a relatively large width between ten and 20 miles. But to be able to break through, you need, among other things, armored vehicles, engineering vehicles with support from the air defense.
The leader of Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, which has so far held large parts of the city, says Ukrainian forces have retaken a key road around Bachmut and captured a tactically important height.
– The flanks are falling, the front is collapsing, says Yevgeny Prigozhin in a video on the Wagner group’s website. At the same time, he directs criticism at the Russian Defense Ministry, which he believes is lying about how its forces have been pushed back.