He had just finished his training as a fighter pilot in 1973 when the Yom Kippur War broke out, triggered by a surprise attack by the Egyptian-Syrian coalition. Amos Yadlin, 71, raised to the rank of major general in 2002, knows all the facets of armed conflict for having notably led, from 2006 to 2010, Aman, Israeli military intelligence, in particular during the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. , in the summer of 2006.
President of the Strategic Dialogue Forum of Elnet, an NGO which defends a strengthening of ties between Israel and Europe and held its annual conference this week in Paris, Amos Yadlin is one of the most esteemed experts on security issues in its country. A wise observer of the war in Ukraine, he would like Israel to increase its support for kyiv.
L’Express: Ukraine is preparing to conduct a counteroffensive. Can she win this war?
General Amos Yadlin: It is dangerous to make predictions. Remember that in February 2022 all the experts were predicting that Russia would take kyiv in two weeks. The Ukrainians have been very good at defending their country, but it is more difficult to surprise an enemy in defensive posture. The big question is whether they will be able to find a weakness in the Russian ranks and surprise them to outflank them in a way that collapses the front line.
What difficulties can Ukraine encounter?
In the short term, the main risk for kyiv would be to be unable to break through the opposing defensive line and suffer a lot of losses. The Russians could then surprise them and lead a “counter-counter-offensive”. The challenge for the Ukrainians would be to manage to use the equipment they received from the West. If they win, another challenge awaits them: Putin could come up with actions he has refused to do so far, such as the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In the long term, they might have to face a Russia whose armaments industry would be running at full capacity and would be able to learn from its mistakes, improve its logistics and its troops. They already did it during the Second World War. Moreover, a change of American administration in 2024, or even political changes in Europe, could lead to a reduction in Western support.
Of the Ukrainian and Russian armies, which one has been able to adapt and improve best?
Ukrainians are much better. First, because they are fighting for the survival of their country, which is not the case with the Russians. Then the Ukrainians get a lot of help from the West, especially weapons. And then it seems that the political culture in Russia, that of authoritarian regimes, does not allow him to learn the right lessons. Ukrainians are not perfect, but they are closer to Western military culture, where debriefing is fundamental.
What role does military intelligence play in a conflict like this?
Intelligence falls into two categories. The first is political, it is about knowing what is in the minds of political and military leaders. For example, knowing what Putin really thinks, what he is up to. Will Russia embark on a long war, or agree to some form of ceasefire, armistice or even a peace treaty? The second concerns capabilities: how many missiles, how many combat planes? Where will the attacks take place? Good intelligence gives you a good picture of your enemy’s intentions. I must add a third category: the ability of intelligence to identify targets. Intelligence must be able to tell the military how to win the war by combining accurate information and accurate shots. The best for this are the Israelis. Not far from them are the Americans. The Russians proved they weren’t very good. The Ukrainians keep getting better and better, and have proven capable of hitting Russian generals.
How can Israel serve as a military model for Ukraine?
In its beginnings, Israel defended itself alone, when it was an “island” of barely 2 million inhabitants in the Middle East surrounded by a hundred million Arabs and Muslims who refused its existence. . Necessity drove inventiveness. Israel has invented a large number of techniques and acquired a quality workforce which has made it a very strong regional power in the military and intelligence fields. Ukrainians can learn a lot from Israelis.
Do you think more ties could be forged between Kyiv and Israel?
It is a political question. Israel, from the start, denounced Russian aggression, but was careful not to help Ukraine militarily, refusing to supply it with lethal weapons. It therefore provides humanitarian aid and “non-lethal” military aid. The reason is that Israel does not want to break the mechanism of “conflict” with Russia, present in Syria. Moscow does not prevent the Israelis from intervening against the Iranians in Syria, where Tehran is trying to extend its military power. Even though our values are in line with those of the Ukrainians, the authorities see our interest in exercising caution.
Is this your position?
Personally, I think that Russia is not going to open a new front against Israel in Syria, and that our values and our interests are identical to those of the United States and Europe. I support Israel providing Ukraine with anti-aircraft defenses that would not kill Russians but would destroy Iranian drones. This would show that Iran acts negatively all over the world. I hope that Israeli policy will move towards protecting Ukraine and its civilian populations from Iranian drones.
Precisely, Iran and Russia are getting closer than ever…
We have always looked at the rapprochement between Iran and Russia as a possible threat to be taken into account. We anticipated that Russia would give funds to Iran, but also sell it weapons, such as SU-35 fighter jets and some missile technology. We hope it won’t go as far as nuclear assistance. Russia still opposes proliferation and the enlargement of the club of nuclear powers.
Facing a foreign invasion, Israel was confronted with it, in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War…
Yes, this year we are going to commemorate 50 years of this war. At the end of the conflict, there was no real winner. Then-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was successful in brokering a peace because both sides understood that a decisive victory was impossible. The Egyptians had experienced the best possible conditions, surprising Israel, crossing the canal, but they ended the war with the Israeli army 100 kilometers from Cairo. I hope there will be a 21st century Kissinger who will be able to negotiate a peace like the one that has prevailed for us for half a century and I hope for a long time to come.
What could an end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia look like?
I think every case is different. A peace treaty seems impossible now. The gap between the demands made by each side is immense, especially on territorial claims. We are also a long way from an armistice, or even a ceasefire. But there may come a time when we realize that this is a war that cannot be won and that compromises have to be made. The question then will be what political price the leaders of the two countries are willing to pay to agree on a ceasefire.