(Finance) – In 2022, at constant prices, “we have not recovered either the per capita disposable income of 2019, let alone that of 2007, which is the maximum. We are even below 150 euros in real terms compared to 1995, that is almost thirty years ago. Just to say that thirty years of low growth are felt in our pockets and in the issues of social hardship and the growth of absolute poverty that we debate every day”. This was stated by the director of the Confcommercio Research Office, Mariano Bella, illustrating the results of the Outlook Italy 2023 “The Year of Transition: Confidence High, Consumption Weak”, edited by Confcommercio and Censis.
Thanks to the growth in the propensity to consume, “in the long run, real spending has gone a little better than income: we have almost recovered the levels of 2019 but we are still below the highs of 2007 by 800 euros each”. To read and understand the post-pandemic “we need to remember the huge public aid. I point out that in 2020 consumption fell much more than real disposable income, and this generated excess, let’s say unwanted, savings; and then against only moderately growing in the two-year period 2021-2022 there was an almost recovery in consumption: of course, therefore which was supported by the savings in turn generated by transfers and public support which worked”
“Without further shocks, the inflation trend could return below 6% as early as August and fall below 3% in October, to end up below 2.5% on average next year. Some prices will fall in absolute terms, such as already in April it was seen for vegetables, eggs, technological products and some services”. This is Bella’s prediction. “In the meantime – he added – we must choose the right path: which can only be that of the reforms and investments of the Pnrr to make current the potential for trust that exists between families, as we have seen, and build a new phase of robust and long-lasting growth, after the boom of the two-year period 2021-2022 and the transition period constituted by this complex 2023″.
“Savings are running out of support for consumption and the uncertainty about inflation and the rise in interest rates are compressing intentions
of purchase. There is a risk of slowing down the recovery, despite the fact that household confidence is high. It is essential to accelerate reforms, in
the tax one in particular, and make the best use of the resources of the Pnrr”: this is the comment of the president of Confcommercio Charles Sangalli to the
Confcommercio-Censis report on confidence and household consumption presented today by the Confederation.
(Photo: Photo by Mathieu Stern on Unsplash)