The war is here. This Thursday, February 24, the Russian army is bombing the whole of Ukraine, cities as well as military bases, and the human losses are expected to be massive. Thousands of Ukrainians are fleeing their country, and the West is coming together in disaster to take “unprecedented” measures. No one was able to prevent this war, because Vladimir Putin wanted it at all costs. In his writings and statements over the past few months, the Russian President has repeated his intention to get rid of the current Ukrainian authorities, by force if necessary. He now applies what he said.
“That’s exactly what we will do”
Last summer, Putin published a long essay in which he gave his vision of Ukraine, whose division with Russia was described as “artificial”. Monday, before recognizing the independence of Donbass and sending his soldiers there, the head of the Kremlin gave all the elements indicating a major attack in his televised address. In the midst of pronounced historical revisionism, Putin assured that Russia was in danger and that he was preparing to respond militarily: “As the level of threats against our country increases significantly, Russia has quite the right to take countermeasures to ensure one’s own safety. That is exactly what we will do.”
For long minutes, the Russian president describes how the United States and NATO are preparing to attack “the Russian enemy” by using Ukraine as a “springboard”. “Of course, they expect us to continue to behave according to the well-known proverb: ‘The dog barks, the caravan passes.’ Let me say right away that we have not accepted this and that we will never do so”, warns Putin, before putting his finger on an alleged nuclear threat from Ukraine, which has nevertheless got rid of all its nuclear weapons between 1994 and 1996.
“There have already been statements that Ukraine will build its own nuclear weapons, and these are not idle bravado, assures the Russian president in front of the cameras. Ukraine has Soviet nuclear technology and vectors of these weapons, including planes and OTR-21 Tochka missiles, also of Soviet design, with a range of more than 100 kilometres, but they will do more, it is only a matter of time. […] If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world, in Europe, especially for Russia, will change radically. We can only respond to this real danger.”
Objective: overthrow the Ukrainian government
His objectives in Ukraine are clearly stated in his speech on Monday: Putin wants to put his own men in place at the head of the Ukrainian government, whose actions since independence would harm the country according to him. “The presidents and deputies of the Rada [NDLR : l’assemblée ukrainienne] change, but the essence and the aggressive and nationalist nature of the regime which took power in Kiev do not change, argues the Russian president. It is entirely a product of the 2014 coup, and those who have taken the path of violence, bloodshed and anarchy have not recognized and will not recognize any other solution to the question of Donbas than a military solution.”
The message was clear: Russia will forcibly dislodge the Ukrainian authorities elected by the people and bring the country back under its control. This morning, the Ukrainian President, Volodymir Zelensky, responded directly to the Russian attacks: “Do not panic, we are strong, we are ready for anything and we will defeat anyone, since we are Ukraine.” The United States would have already planned his evacuation if the situation degenerated even more.
If the invasion by the Russian army succeeds, revenge and executions are also to be expected. Here again, the words of the Kremlin are unambiguous: “Ukrainian cities have been overwhelmed by a wave of pogroms and violence, a series of loud and unpunished murders. One cannot help but shudder at the terrible tragedy in Odessa , where peaceful protesters were brutally murdered and burned alive in the House of Trade Unions [NDLR : en 2014, 42 militants pro-russes de cette ville ukrainienne sont morts dans un incendie sans que les coupables ne soient identifiés]. The criminals who committed this atrocity have not been punished, no one is looking for them. But we know their names and we will do everything to punish them, find them and bring them to justice.”
The war is probably only in its infancy. Again, Putin said it himself on Monday: “We must not, as they say, stop halfway.”