Neither Ukraine nor Russia have made any dramatic gains since November 2022 when Ukraine retook the southern city of Kherson.
Now a Ukrainian spring offensive is expected with newly trained soldiers, new tanks and other equipment.
Most effective direction of attack
Which direction the attack will take, Ukraine keeps secret, but several observers believe that an important goal is to cut off the land corridor between occupied Donbass and Crimea.
An offensive to the south towards Melitopol is therefore considered optimal for Ukraine.
Can reach the Kerch Bridge
It could also mean that Ukraine gets close enough to the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, to reach it with the Himars rocket artillery.
Normally, the Himars systems in Ukraine have a range of around 90 kilometers. But in February, the US promised so-called GLSDB ammunition that can reach 150 kilometers.
– That would then cut off the supply to Crimea, says Johan Huovinen, lieutenant colonel and teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
See the map showing how an attack to the south might go in the clip.