The rest of the world is waiting for the big spring offensive – and a lot is at stake.
If Ukraine succeeds in achieving its goal, it could end the war against Russia, says Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén.
– It is without a doubt that Crimea decides everything, he says.
The war in Ukraine continues to escalate, not least after the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin on Wednesday. Many observers believe that a Ukrainian spring offensive is close, probably already now in May when the weather is warmer.
The military strategist and lieutenant colonel Peter Lidén is one of them.
– I think they are under pressure to start as soon as possible, as soon as the ground actually bears, but at the same time they need to be sufficiently prepared so that it is sufficiently successful from the start, he says.
Moment of surprise
Ukraine wants and should start the offensive with surprise, but it can be difficult, says Lidén, since there has been talk of the counterattack for six months and since both parties have the geography clear to them.
– But you can still try to surprise in time and space and with which method you use, says Peter Lidén.
After an element of surprise, Lidén believes that Ukraine will try to go on a small-scale offensive in several places, and then possibly go in harder where success is achieved.
They will attempt to cross the Dnieper River, something that is both difficult and risky, to reach the occupied Crimean Peninsula.
– It is undoubtedly the case that Crimea decides everything together. If you get there somehow, then it will probably be decisive for the whole war, says Peter Lidén.
– It’s not just territory, it’s also about liberating the population.
One last chance?
The military strategist explains that Ukraine is stronger this spring than it was last fall, mainly thanks to building up new units and receiving vehicles and weapons systems from the West.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is currently in Helsinki for a summit with the Nordic leaders, including Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M). At a press conference this week, he said that Ukraine is facing a very important year.
But Peter Lidén does not believe that the upcoming spring offensive is the country’s last chance for victory over Russia.
– No, it is not. They will probably have to take more measures, more offensives going forward. A lot is decided now and maybe during this year, but not in a single spring offensive.