Ukraine offensive approaching: “A chance”

The rest of the world is eagerly awaiting Ukraine’s promised spring offensive.

After several months of preparation on both sides, it is important to pull off a proper surprise.

– You have to assume that they get an opportunity and they have to succeed, says lieutenant colonel Johan Huovinen.

That it will happen is no secret. Senior representatives on the Ukrainian side have been talking for a long time about the big spring offensive, where forces will switch from defense to attack. The other day, Ukraine’s defense minister said that most things were in place and that they were “close to the finish line”.

When you so clearly warn of imminent attacks, there is probably a thought behind it, according to Johan Huovinen, lieutenant colonel and military teacher at the Defense Academy who previously worked in both Moscow and Kiev.

– I don’t think they have received equipment to the number they state, but it is also a strategic signaling to Russia, he says.

– But every day that the Ukrainians do not attack, the Russians also have time to prepare their defense further.

Rows of trenches

The first thing Ukraine has had to wait for is spring. The ground needs to support even heavier vehicles than those used by the Ukrainian forces so far, when modern and Western-made combat vehicles and tanks are to arrive and then take the lead.

– Then they have to decide where to strike somewhere, says Johan Huovinen.

Satellite images gossip about rows of trenches, minefields and tank obstacles on the Russian side of the front, usually in several layers.

Most observers single out Melitopol as the most likely and suitable target for a Ukrainian offensive. The city is located on the occupied strip of land that runs along the coast in the south and connects Russia with the annexed Crimean peninsula.

An alternative is to attack the city of Donetsk in the east from the north and surround it, as Johan Huovinen sees it. Another is to advance in Luhansk county and regain symbolically important land along the border with Russia in the northeast.

Long front line

– Surprise is important, because Russia has quite extended defense lines. The entire stretch, from up at Luhansk to Kherson, is 100 or 120 miles long, says Huovinen.

– You would probably get the greatest effect and greatest depth if you attacked from Zaporizhzhya towards Melitopol. And then you can choose whether you want to turn off with the greatest force in the direction of Mariupol or turn off towards Crimea.

The lieutenant colonel imagines that Ukrainian forces may then also succeed in crossing the Dnieper River in the west, whereupon the invasion forces will be caught in a surprising pincer maneuver.

Russia has in recent days attacked Ukraine in renewed robot attacks. Mychajlo Podoljak, a close adviser to the President of Ukraine, describes it as the Russians trying to “provoke” the offensive.

Summer offensive?

Johan Huovinen notes that the Russian robots’ targets are of a more military nature than in previous attacks, possibly to slow down the offensive.

According to some observers, an attack could happen any day, and according to others, it will happen at the end of May. The probability increases every day, notes Huovinen, who at the same time does not want to rule out that there will be a summer offensive starting in June.

Ukraine is already under pressure to act, both internally and from allies who have supplied it with weapons. The offensive itself is going to be a long story.

– And if you do not succeed and if the Russians were to knock out 15 or 20 percent of the combat vehicles and tanks that the Ukrainians have received, then there are no more to be received, at least not at the moment, says Johan Huovinen.