The war in Ukraine has intensified the competition between the great powers in Africa. Via the Wagner group, Russia has broadened its influence across the continent in recent years – not least in the war-torn Sudan. – We can already see that Africa has taken on a greater role. Russia is approaching to avoid sanctions from the West and find alternative relations, says Carl-Michael Gräns, FOI senior analyst. At the same time as Sudan is shaken by a violent internal power struggle, another showdown is taking place at the highest level, where the world’s major powers are fighting for influence, trade and natural resources in the turbulent desert kingdom. A struggle in which Russia makes constant gains. – Russian investment and trade in Africa is quite small if you compare it to the USA, Europe and China – with the exception of the Wagner group and weapons, says Carl-Michael Gräns. The Kremlin is looking for new contacts The strict restrictions imposed on Russia and the majority of key people around the Kremlin have fueled Putin’s interest in Africa. Strengthened relations have then primarily taken place via their privatized military, the Wagner group. Carl-Michael Gräns has followed developments closely via his diplomatic posts as ambassador in Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon – and in his role as senior analyst at the unit for security policy at the Total Defense Research Institute. – Like most countries, Russia naturally has a diplomatic relationship with African states, not least with large countries such as South Africa and Egypt, in terms of trade and more. But in recent years we have seen that they have also approached other countries in Africa and that it is then often the Wagner group that at some stage becomes part of the Russian presence, he says. A cynical pattern When analyzing the recent Russian presence in Africa, a cynical pattern emerges. Political instability, terror, arms trade and gold are all factors that Russia sought. – As a rule, these are unstable countries with weak democratic institutions, sometimes ruled by military juntas such as in Sudan or Mali, where there are major problems with security and terrorist threats. That’s where Wagner comes in and offers his services, which are then sold as a weapon in the “war on terror,” he says. Sudan, Mozambique, Mali, Libya and the Central African Republic are some of the countries in which the Wagner Group has established itself – and there is speculation that they are now on their way to more. – The Wagner group’s entry into the countries is usually accompanied by a media investment, not least on social media, where a pro-Russian narrative is presented with the help of disinformation and in some cases what can be regarded as pure propaganda. It is often Russian-owned media groups that are close to the Wagner Group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, he says. “The governments of the countries sign agreements with Wagner” Sudan, like several other African countries, is rich in natural resources, which throughout history has attracted the interest of the outside world. The amount of gold produced in the country last year was the highest ever. In total, close to 19 tons of gold were lifted from the earth, reports Africa News. The Wagner Group is one of the actors that digs for African gold. – The governments of the countries sign agreements with Wagner where the payment often takes place in the form of mining concessions and income from metals and minerals, which in many cases are the most important source of income for these countries, he says. Russia accounts for 43 percent of total arms exports to Africa and between 2017 and 2021, the country exported arms to 14 of the total 54 states on the continent. The Wagner group also plays an important role in the arms trade – and payment has largely been made with gold, according to FOI. American studies also show the Wagner group’s cruelty in Africa. According to an American study, civilians make up 71 percent of the victims in Mali when the Wagner group fought – compared to 20 percent when the regular Malian army made its own efforts. – You can see that there are significantly more civilian victims when Wagner has fought and there is a fear that this will further destabilize these countries, says Carl-Michael Gräns.
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