Published on
Updated
Reading 3 mins.
India will be the most populous country in the world at the end of April, overtaking China, to reach more than 1.425 billion inhabitants, the United Nations announced on Monday while acknowledging great “uncertainty” on the precise date of this historic crossing. between the two Asian giants.
Last week, a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on the state of the world’s population estimated that India’s population would be 1.4286 billion compared to 1.4257 billion for the China. But not before the middle of this year.
According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in New York “China will soon cede its long held place as the world’s most populous country.” In a week, or “by the end of this month, the population of India should reach 1,425,775,850 inhabitants, equaling and then exceeding the population of mainland China”, thus excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan according to this agency.
One billion Chinese
“China’s population peaked at 1.426 billion in 2022 and has begun to decline. Projections indicate that China’s population size could fall below 1 billion by the end of the century (while) the Indian population should continue to grow for several decades”adds the press release from Desa, whose boss is the Under-Secretary General of the United Nations, the Chinese Li Junhua.
Questioned by the press at UN headquarters in New York, John Wilmoth, director of the population division of Desa, had difficulty explaining why his agency and UNFPA had published two different dates for the overtaking of the Chinese population by that of India.
“It’s a pity that the communication is not clear”, recognized Mr. Wilmoth. “From what is known it is happening this year (but) there is also a lot of uncertainty around that estimate. The exact timing of this crossover is not known for sure and never will be. “admitted the UN diplomat.
China versus India
According to official data released earlier this year, China’s population fell last year for the first time since 1960-1961, after a famine that began in 1959 left tens of millions dead in the sequel to the “Great Leap Forward”.
Paradoxically, this decline in the population in China occurs despite the relaxation of the birth control policy in recent years. Ten years ago, the Chinese were only allowed to have one child. Since 2021, they can have three. This decline is generally attributed to the cost of living which has risen sharply in China, as has the cost of raising a child. The higher level of education of women also delays pregnancies.
As for India, the country does not have any up-to-date official data on the number of its inhabitants, because it has not carried out a census since 2011. This takes place only once a decade and the census scheduled for 2021 has been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Logistical obstacles and political reluctance now prevent it from taking place and it is unlikely that this large-scale exercise will take place soon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government is accused by critics of deliberately delaying it so as not to release data on sensitive issues like unemployment ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections.
India’s economy struggles to provide jobs for the millions of young people entering the job market each year. Half of the South Asian giant’s population is under 30 years old. If China and India combine nearly three billion inhabitants, UNFPA also estimates that the world population will reach 8.045 billion inhabitants by the middle of the year. It should only decrease from the 2090s after having peaked at 10.4 billion inhabitants, according to the United Nations.