The tension is palpable in Ukraine. After Russia’s recognition on Monday of two separatist regions of Donbass and the promise to send troops there – which has not yet been confirmed – the Ukrainian Security Council has called for the establishment of state of emergency in the country. He mobilized his reservists and called on his nationals to leave Russia. At the same time, Western countries, which have all denounced the actions of Vladimir Putin, have announced a first series of economic sanctions. The Express offers an alphabet to have all the keys to understanding the crisis in Ukraine.
They had to restore peace but never managed to achieve it. The Minsk agreements, named after the Belarusian capital where they were signed in 2014 (Minsk I) and 2015 (Minsk II) between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, under Franco-German mediation, aimed to put an end to the conflict that was ravaging the east of the country. Rather than agreements, these were more protocols, less binding, even if Minsk II provided deadlines and more details to reach a peaceful situation.
Among the important points of the agreements: an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from each camp, a pardon for those involved in the fighting, an exchange of hostages and prisoners, the withdrawal of foreign armed formations. They also provided for constitutional reform in Ukraine, elections in Donetsk and Lugansk, the two regions held by the separatists. And it was expected that these would remain under the Ukrainian flag.
A decision that Vladimir Putin chose to trample by unilaterally recognizing their independence on Monday. He thus rendered obsolete the Minsk agreements, which were nevertheless favorable to Russia – much more than to Ukraine. Many points had, in any case, not been followed up until now.
Crimea is a peninsula of 27,000 m2 located in southern Ukraine, bordered to the east by the Sea of Azov, to the west by the Black Sea. In 2014, after weeks of protests in Maidan Square in Kiev, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was deposed. Already latent, tensions are rising a notch between supporters of the revolution and those who wish to get closer to Moscow when the Ukrainian Parliament attacks the status of second official language granted to Russian. Separatist tendencies are growing in Crimea.
This autonomous region – since 1992 and the fall of the Soviet Union – does not recognize the new, provisional authorities of the country. It organizes a referendum on March 16, 2014: 96% of the population is in favor of joining Russia. But the ballot, boycotted by the pro-Ukraine, was organized in ten days under the gaze of thousands of Russian soldiers who control the region. The international community rejects the vote, deemed “illegal”, and denounces an annexation of the territory. The next day, the Parliament of Crimea officially requests its attachment to Russia, validated by Vladimir Putin. The European Union (EU) and the United States then approved a series of sanctions against some twenty Russian personalities.
The Donbass is a mining and industrial region in eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia. It consists of two oblasts, administrative provinces: Donetsk and Lugansk. Above all, since 2014 and the dismissal of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, it has been the heart of an armed conflict between the new regime and the pro-Russian separatists, supported by Moscow. It was to bring peace to this territory that the Minsk agreements were signed. According to’AFPthe conflict has claimed more than 14,000 lives since 2014.
On Monday, Vladimir Putin recognized the two “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk and announced that he would send troops there for a “peacekeeping” mission. No timetable has been specified, while Russia has massed more than 150,000 men, according to the United States, on the Ukrainian border. The Russian Parliament, under the leadership of its president, unanimously approved on Tuesday “agreements of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance” with the “republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk. It remains to be seen whether the territories concerned by this text stop at the current front line, or whether they include the administrative regions of Donetsk and Lugansk defined by Kiev. That is to say, on paper, an area much larger than that claimed by the separatists.
The expression comes from the name of the country, Finland. Its origin is attributed to former Austrian Foreign Minister Karl Gruber. In 1953, he used it to refer to a set of limitations imposed by a power on a weaker neighbor. Karl Gruber refers to the former USSR in the role of the first, to Finland for the second.
After the Second World War, during which Finland, an ally of Nazi Germany, fought the Soviet Union, the two countries signed an armistice in 1944. Then, three years later, in Paris, a peace agreement. The Finnish leaders agree, through this agreement, not to join NATO, which has just been created, or to join the EU for the duration of the Cold War. Aligned with the foreign policy of the USSR, Finland, independent, is subject to neutrality with regard to its neighbour.
It joined the EU in 1995, after the collapse of the Soviet bloc, and became a NATO partner, without however being a member. The “Finlandization” of Ukraine came back into the debate as a possible solution to the conflict with Russia.
Cock-a-doodle Doo. The expression refers to the French region, the scene of a meeting between Vladimir Putin (Russia), Petro Poroshenko (then President of Ukraine), François Hollande (ex-French President) and Angela Merkel (ex-German Chancellor) . The four leaders had met at the Château de Bénouville, in Calvados, on June 6, 2014. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings. Donbass had been at war for several months and this semi-official meeting was the first of its kind with the objective of discussing a peace process. This format of four-way diplomacy was reactivated by Emmanuel Macron after the renewed tension in eastern Ukraine.
For the anecdote, the expression was used for the first time by an American journalist who covered the event, in 2014. She spoke of a “Model Normandy”, an expression then Frenchified. The journalist used the name of the region because, she admitted in West Franceshe had trouble pronouncing “Ouistreham”.
Literally it means “camouflage”. In Russia, the maskirovka is a military approach that relies on deception, trickery and/or misinformation. It consists in never admitting one’s intentions, in resorting to all possible means to deceive the enemy and keep the initiative. “Russian instructors insist a lot on this tool, on the importance of dissimulation and surprise in war, explained to The Express Gustav Gressel, specialist on Russia at the European Council on International Relations. The maskirovka is all the more systematic because the Russian authorities – and the Soviet authorities before them – are not accountable to the public.”
This technique was used during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Also guessed in Georgia in 2008. The creation of incidents, pretexts for military intervention, is one of the tactics of the maskirovka. Before Vladimir Putin spoke on Monday, the United States denounced such maneuvers on the part of Russia in the Donbass.
1230 kilometers connecting via the Baltic Sea Ust-Luga, Russia, and Lubmin, Germany. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which follows the same route as its twin, Nord Stream 1 (operational since 2012), was completed last November but has not yet been commissioned. It is expected that this huge pipe will pass through this huge pipe every year, 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas.
However, since the start of the project, Nord Stream 2 has been at the heart of a geopolitical and economic battle. The United States considers that it opens a loophole in the European security balance. Various eastern countries, such as Poland, Slovakia, Denmark and the Baltic States are also hostile to it. They point to increased European dependence on Russian gas and the sidelining of Ukrainian interests, as Russians can more easily turn away from pipelines that pass through Ukraine. The latter would then lose a significant economic windfall.
Germany has always supported the project. But in retaliation for Moscow’s recognition of the independence of pro-Russian Ukrainian provinces, Chancellor Olaf Scholz turned off the not-yet-open tap. He announced on Tuesday the suspension of the gas pipeline approval procedure. “Without this certification, Nord Stream 2 cannot be put into service,” he said.
“New Russia”. Historically, this term refers to a territorial subdivision of the Russian Empire, located south of present-day Ukraine. For Vladimir Putin, who already used this term in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, it is the dream of recreating the Novorossia of the imperial era.
It would result in a takeover of the Russian-speaking zone in the East – of the Donbass therefore – and of southern Ukraine, that of the lands of the Black Sea region. This would allow the land junction between Russia and the pro-Russian separatist territory of Transnistria, east of Moldova, not recognized by the international community. Tuesday, Vladimir Putin defended himself from wanting to “reconstitute an empire”.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 by twelve countries: United States, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Netherlands, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, United Kingdom and Portugal. All pledged to defend each other in the event of an attack on one of the members. In more than 70 years of existence, the political-military alliance has grown and now has thirty member countries, which take all decisions unanimously. NATO also keeps the door open for potential new members.
Ukraine and Georgia were tempted to join the Atlantic Alliance in 2008. But they were not integrated, so as not to offend Moscow too much. No matter, Vladimir Putin does not appreciate this extension towards the east, towards Russia. To justify the current tensions in Ukraine, he blames NATO and demands, in particular, the end of its enlargement policy and the withdrawal of its military infrastructure from Eastern Europe. Proposals refused.
In reaction to the decisions of the Russian president, unanimously denounced by Western countries, all have promised significant economic sanctions. The European capitals and Washington, supported by Canada, Australia and Japan, announced on Tuesday a first series of financial measures against Russia. They froze the assets of certain Russian officials and businessmen. The British, for example, targeted three oligarchs close to the Kremlin, as well as five banks.
The EU has also banned visas for the 351 Russian Duma deputies who approved the recognition of the independence of the separatist territories. “Sanctions do not have miraculous effects. But sanctions hurt economically and hurt the people affected,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign minister. The list of institutions affected by asset freezes due to the financing of Russian military activities is yet to be detailed.
From Monday evening, via an executive order, Joe Biden, the American president, had already prohibited any new investment, exchange, or financing by American persons to, from or within these pro-Russian regions. Washington, Brussels and London have also made it known that Moscow would be denied access to Western capital markets to finance part of its debt.