Crossing the Dnieper indicates that Ukraine is feeling out and preparing, says military professor Aki-Mauri Huhtinen from the National Defense University.
Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnieper River (Dniprojoki in Ukrainian) in the Kherson region and advanced to the east side of the river. At the same time, map data shows that Russian troops have had to retreat at least 14 kilometers wide.
The transfer of troops may be a sign of Ukraine’s counterattack, a military professor estimates Aki-Mauri Huhtinen From the National Defense University.
– Crossing the river suggests that Ukraine is feeling and preparing, but it can also be misleading. In this way, Ukraine has caused Russia’s front line to move – albeit by a short distance, says Huhtinen.
Ukraine’s counterattack has been long overdue. According to Huhtinen, crossing the Dnieper river betrays an attempt to break through, but the major attack itself would most likely take place further south.
– Ukraine aims in the direction of Crimea. The most sensible thing would be to try to break the Russian defense line along the axis from Kherson to Zaporizhzhia and in the area of Vuhledar and Melitopol, says Huhtinen.
Ukraine’s main goal is to break through and cut off the land route between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, according to a US think tank Institute for the Study of War. (you switch to another service)
Spokesman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Natalia Humeniuk has neither confirmed nor denied the ISW report. He has said that operations on the east bank of the Dnieper (you will switch to another service) called for “operational silence” and urged patience.
According to Huhtinen, Russia also knows the places where Ukraine should attempt a counterattack.
– Ukraine protects well where the reserve forces are, but the investigation is ongoing. Crossing rivers and securing maintenance to sustain the attack are big challenges, says Huhtinen.
Chief of Military Intelligence: The most significant battle in Ukraine’s recent history is ahead
Russian war bloggers have also reported on the advance of Ukrainian forces. According to ISW (you switch to another service) located materials collected by Russian war bloggers confirm that Ukraine has advanced in the Kherson region and dug defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnieper.
Until now, the entire Kherson region on the east bank of the Dnieper has been under Russian control, and the wide river has acted as a barrier.
Military analysts believe that Ukraine will launch its counterattack soon. According to Huhtinen, it will start happening within a few weeks, unless Ukraine postpones the operation for some reason or it is not successful.
– We will see it when it starts to happen. You can talk about a counterattack when the front line starts to move in several places and reaches considerable depth in some area. It will happen in the near future unless there is a complete change in the plan, Huhtinen estimates.
Chief of Military Intelligence of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov revealed on Monday RBC-Ukraine (you switch to another service) in an interview that Ukraine is preparing for a big battle.
– Like it or not, we are approaching the most significant battle in Ukraine’s recent history. When it starts must remain a secret. But everyone understands that it is coming, Budanov said.
According to Huhtinen, the decisive factor after the counter-attack is how well the attack keeps pace, depending on Russia’s countermeasures, maintenance, terrain and weather conditions.
Ukraine defends Bahmut tooth and nail
In Bahmut, Russian forces have advanced this week, but Ukraine is still defending a small part of the city. According to ISW estimates, 87.9% of the Bahmut urban area is under the control of Russian forces led by the Wagner Group.
According to war professor Huhtinen, Bahmut has become the president of Ukraine, so to speak Volodymyr To Zelensky and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s a fight between people whose goal is to inflict as much loss as possible on the other.
– In Bahmut, they try to use up the other’s forces and destroy as much as possible. It has also become a matter of prestige and a center of war propaganda, says Huhtinen.
Ukraine pays a heavy price for defending Bahmut. Commanders from both sides of the war have described the city as a “meat grinder”. On the other hand, defending Bahmut gives Ukraine more time to prepare its counterattack.
– Russian troops are tied to Bahmut as long as Ukraine’s defense lasts there, says Huhtinen.
Bahmut is important to Russia because through it Russia could try to advance to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which it has long wanted in the Donetsk region.
You can discuss the topic on 27.4. until 11 p.m.